28 April 2009
The Future of Severe Weather Warnings
Posted by Dan Satterfield
It amazes me that in the 21st century that people are still clamoring for more tornado sirens in their communities. These sirens are outrageously expensive, and perhaps the least effective way to warn people of severe weather. Yet, after every severe weather event, I will get several emails from folks complaining that they have no siren in their neighborhood.
No Weather Siren? No problem.
Just to be clear, the reasons these sirens are and should be a thing of the past:
1. They are not designed to be heard indoors
2. They are frightfully expensive.
3. They give no immediate information to citizens.
I personally feel that not another single penny of tax money should ever be spent on them.
So what to do instead?
Several options.
The Midland WR 100 or WR 300, are good NOAA Radios
Most importantly, get a NOAA weather radio. If you are in Canada, they have a weather radio system there as well. Other countries do not, but you should pester your MP to develop a system. There is a major need in the UK for one. I’m surprised that “Disgusted in Tunbridge Wells” has not made a big deal about this! (That’s a joke only the UK folks will get, but trust me, it was a good one! đ )
The World Meteorological Organization is working with HAM radio operators in Africa to gather and report weather information. Ham radio operators around the world have long been actively involved in storm spotting and weather data relay efforts. I am a HAM lic. holder myself (KC4ZUX). These people do a wonderful service, their spotter reports are invaluable during severe weather.
For those that have these radios, do not set it for any other county than your own. The way the system works, it may not even work if you do this. The U.S. Federal Government is working toward being able to warn only parts of counties with the NOAA radios, but for some reason (Likely money) it’s not up and running yet. Still, you should have one.
If you live in a mobile home, your risk of being injured by severe weather is many, many times greater and a NOAA radio is an absolute must.
Another option I really think is great is the new automated calling systems. Dekalb County Alabama was struck by tornadoes this year and last. It’s a fairly rural county and sirens are not an option. They  just purchased a system that will allow them to call resident in the path of severe storms.
WAY TO GO DEKALB EMA!
Hopefully, other counties and cities will follow their lead. I know of several of these systems that are already operating. With everyone carrying a mobile phone now, this is real 21st century technology.
Vortex 2 is underway- Click for more info.
All of this will be of little use, if forecasters like me cannot see dangerous weather developing. Believe me, there is a ton of research underway to improve warnings. This Spring, NOAA and several universities are working together to get high resolution data of severe storms. This experiment is called VORTEX 2. It’s the largest and most ambitious effort ever undertaken to better understand how tornadoes form.
The average lead time, for a tornado warning, is about 13 minutes in the USA. Higher if you exclude tornadoes in hurricanes. There was an excellent paper, in the March issue, of the AMS Journal Weather and Forecasting on Tornado warnings that were too late. These negative lead time warnings still happen, but they are rare. Forecasters are looking at how and why these tornadoes were missed, so there will be fewer of them.
Interestingly, these late warnings happen very often with the first tornado of the day, and in months when tornadoes are not common. They also are more likely in areas of the country that see few twisters. As we learn more, and get higher resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWP), the lead time for tornadoes should increase.  Just as importantly, the false alarms will decrease.
Keep safe,
Dan
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.
Thanks to my great-grandmother (who was and still is a big fan of yours), I’ve had a NOAA weather radio all my life. I’m always amazed when other people don’t have them – haha. And they are much cheaper now and perform so much better than the old ones. I really hope you can get that bill passed you had going last year . . . although I must confess that I got caught near a quick spinup tornado this spring at night while driving (I thought the severe threat was over for the night) – the outdoor sirens are the first thing I heard – I also heard the cut-in from the National Weather Service for the tornado warning on my car radio (92.7 FM – these guys do an incredible job covering severe weather as well as playing some old tunes you don’t hear much anymore) – and then heard you cut in for coverage . . . I guess the outdoor sirens do serve _some_ purpose (although I used to think not), but it would sure save a lot of money if people would spend the $30 on a NOAA radio – especially businesses that need to protect not only employees but customers. (When I worked at Wal-Mart in Jasper a few years back they did not even have a NOAA radio but relied on outdoor sirens! UNREAL! And their “safety plan” is almost as appalling unfortunately.)
NOAA weather radios and more radio stations that will broadcast severe weather coverage – I think that’s what we need. My favorite station up here is 95.1 FM – great music, but I haven’t heard them cut in for severe weather a single time. Seems that 89.3 NPR sometimes does and other times doesn’t.
Eh well . . . at least if you look at the coverage ten, fifteen years ago compared to now, it has come a LONG way. And a lot of it is thanks to TV guys like you who dare to “break in” even when you know it will get you tons of hate mail.
Just recently got cable TV (regular rabbit ears are perhaps as much of a relic as outdoor sirens now – haha) . . . and have been seeing a lot on the Weather Channel about that VORTEX2 project. Will be interesting to see how that goes.
Sorry my comments are so long. I just love to read weather blogs . . . wish there were more good ones out there updated more often. Some stations don’t even have one.
I agree, being a Tennessee Valley native myself, I believe radio warnings should be given for those that are driving. I also believe that outdoor warning sirens be upgraded to a more accurate system. Dan has a point, outdoor sirens have become a terrible way to get warnings out. I am going to start collage for Meteorology soon at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I have been studying weather since I was 5, and I’m 25 now. I have recently gotten my GED back in 2010, and have been waiting on a settlement to pay for college. I certainly have a goal to be a great meteorologist like Dan. I believe I have some great theories to help forecasters make better forecasts to save lives on days like 4\27\11. I watched that monster tear apart my hometown of Arab, Al on that day, killing the Hallmark family(Relatives of mine). I hope that someday soon we will be able to have better lead time for weather conditions like we had on that day. Dan, I know every forecaster in the country is doing their best, I appreciate the effort to keep our families safe. we all miss you down here in Bama, we hope someday you come back to visit us. I have been a follower of yours since I was young, I remember February 16th,1995 when that tornado hit southern Arab, it killed a school friend of mine that lived right next door to my grandmother. You covered that and even called it on radar before the NWS in Huntsville called it. Ever since then, I have followed you, and learned alot from you. I just wanted to say thank you.
Nice site – Like what you did. Wishing you a very happy and prosperous new year !
I’ve wondered about getting a NOAA radio and setting it for the next county over as we are very near the border and the severe storms usually come in from that way; the lead time on the warnings has been improving but there have been times when the storm was upon us by the time the warning was issued for Madison county. Two radios…one set for Madison and one for Morgan…wouldn’t be a good idea?