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29 August 2008

Tropical Trouble Times 2

It seems tonight that the numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance is starting to come together on Gustav. Up through this morning, there was still a lot of spread among the different models. This tells a forecaster that any one solution is not likely to be correct, and that leads to a low confidence forecast. Sometimes you will see a few outliers and know that you can ignore them due to …


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