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8 March 2018

Look at What the Coastal Storms Have Done to the Chesapeake Bay

  It is amazing what we can see from satellite remote sensing now. Check out what the NOAA Satellite and Information Service says about it: The┬áChesapeake Bay is experiencing high sediment throughout the Bay, due to several different simultaneous events. River discharge from the Susquehanna River at the north end of Bay has been high (more than 100,000 cubic feet per second) for approximately two weeks, and the high winds …


15 March 2017

Properly Communicating Uncertainty Is Just as Important as Making A Good Forecast

There has been a bit of a firestorm in the last 24 hours over an AP report that the NWS decided to stick with its snowfall forecast even after last minute model guidance showed lesser amounts were likely. There’s a story in the Washington Post and Seth Borenstein at the AP broke the story. Here are some thoughts on this based on 37 years of forecasting, and I will say …


4 December 2015

El Nino In A Can

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the┬ásimulation. …


13 February 2014

Wild Weather and Forecast Uncertainty

The flooding in the UK is the worst on record in many areas, and the SW mainline rail to Cornwall has washed away. This being just the latest in a series of powerful storms that have blasted the UK and Ireland since early January. Some areas had a months worth of rain last night alone, and some areas had two months worth of rain in two days. The BBC has …


27 October 2013

The Big UK Windstorm You Will Hear About Tomorrow

There are some signs that the low may not reach quite the intensity earlier, but I would not count on that. It may indeed may be one of the strongest storms in quite sometime in Britain. Matt Taylor’s weather broadcast on the BBC is below: Click image to see it. Below is the GFS Model for 3 AM Tuesday morning. The height of the storm will likely be Monday night. …


14 October 2013

The Coastal Storm That Never Ends

Here on the Delmarva, we’ve had 4 days of rain and a lot of it. Over 4.6 inches here in Salisbury, but parts of Delaware have had well over 6 inches. The wind hasn’t been anything like Sandy, or even a strong nor’easter, but it’s been blowing steady at 20-35 mph for four days! Waves and tides are affected by three factors however. 1.Wind Speed (How high are the winds) …