19 March 2016

This Is Why The Record Warmth is Not Natural

Posted by Dan Satterfield

Lots of talk about the global record temperatures that both NOAA and NASA (They do separate calculations) announced this week, but here’s something that doesn’t get as much attention, and should. Look at the graph above, it shows two different temperature traces. The red line is the actual global temps. since about 1880. Black line is the CMIP 5 model average forecast when you put in CO2, volcanic eruptions, minute changes in solar output, etc.

Notice how amazing the match is!

The latest climate models are truly amazing, and unfortunately, these same models are forecasting around 2.5-5 degrees Celsius warming by 2100. These graphs are from a paper published in Nature Scientific Reports, by highly respected climate experts including Michael Mann, and Stefan Rahmstorf, along with others. 

How do we know it is almost certainly due to the CO2, and not a natural cycle?
Two things (and actually many more):
1. Carbon Dioxide traps heat, and it must be trapping around .6 watts per sq. meter due to the increased amounts compared to pre-industrial times, so it’s in the mix no matter what. This is basic physics and has been understood for 150 years, anyone who said otherwise would be laughed at.
2. Look what happens with the CMIP5 models, when you remove the increased CO2. Without the increasing greenhouse gases, the amazing match disappears, and you see almost no warming at all. The computed odds against  the warming we’ve seen being natural are somewhere around 1700/1 to 500/1, while others have found even higher odds against it being natural.


All of this is fairly straightforward, and easy to understand, so it begs the question of why we hear politicians saying that this amazing (and record breaking) warming is a natural cycle. You’d think that these folks could pick up the phone and talk to any member of the National Academies of Science, or a top official at NASA/NOAA, who’d certainly explain it to them. It makes you wonder about the decision/critical thinking skills of someone who keep repeating something that’s so obviously wrong.