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9 September 2011

Rainfall Totals from Lee

The heavy rains from Lee are falling on the very saturated ground that resulted from Irene, and severe flooding continues from Fairfax in Virginia, to Pennsylvania and New York tonight. It should start drying out some tomorrow and fairly dry weather is on the way for the next 7 days, unless TS Maria pulls a surprise on us. Update: Dave Petley over at the Landslide blog has a great post …

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4 September 2011

Quick Update on Tropical Storm Lee

    TS Lee is dumping very heavy rains along the coast tonight and moving very slowly onshore west of Baton Rouge, LA. The heavy rains are forecast to move into central AL on Sunday and then into North AL (my location) by Sunday night. While the winds may never allow Lee to be called a hurricane, the strong Canadian high pressure system moving down from the north may give …

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1 September 2011

NHC missed the Irene Forecast?? I Think Not.

Every meteorologist/forecaster I know agrees that the NHC forecasters did an amazing job on Irene. Yes, the intensity forecast was a little high on the landfall forecast for N. Carolina, but the skill in intensity forecasts is still a much bigger problem than track and the 24 hour forecast was quite close. There are few weather obs on the outer banks and I suspect the winds were higher than recorded …

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25 August 2011

What To Expect From Irene If You Are In Her Path

Hurricane Irene remains a dangerous hurricane, and overnight numerical weather prediction models have shifted a bit back tot he west. This increases the risk of a land falling hurricane in New Jersey or on Long Island, followed by a track across the highly populated areas of New England. It’s possible that Irene may pass near or west of New York City and Boston. While Irene will start to pass over …

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19 August 2011

Supercell Thunderstorm East of Brussels Kills 4

  The red arrow is pointing at the overshooting top on the thunderstorm, indicating a very strong updraft. The BBC says 4 were killed when a stage collapsed at a music festival. Surface weather obs (from just before the storm developed) indicated temps near 27℃ (80℉) and dew-points near 18℃ (64℉). A surface front was moving into Belgium as a strong upper level trough pushed through the UK, and this set the stage …

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18 August 2011

Waterspout Today In North Carolina

Waterspouts are not tornadoes but have caused damage and injuries in the past. They develop when horizontal rotations from wind shear (and rising and falling air parcels) get twisted into the vertical.

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22 July 2011

Friday Science Digest

My daughter suggested I start doing a once a week digest of interesting science news/blog posts from the previous week. So welcome to the first edition! The Guardian has a great piece today about a study the BBC commissioned on its science coverage, and the results come as no surprise to the science community. That said, I still rate the Beeb as one of the more reliable sources of science …

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14 July 2011

Yes, The Heat is Bad, But It’s Going to Get Worse

The torrid heat is going to get worse next week. Much of the Plains is suffering through the hottest summer since 1980 and Texas is enduring a drought that is now called exceptional. In the Southeast the heat index hit 115° (46C) in Greenville, MS. on Wed. and Poplar Bluff in Mo. beat that with 118° on Monday. The heat is being made much worse in the Eastern U.S. by …

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17 June 2011

Alabama Tornado Upgraded to EF 5

The Tennessee Valley was hit by two EF 5 tornadoes on April 27th. Today, the NWS in Huntsville upgraded the EF 4 tornado in Dekalb County from an EF 4 to an EF 5, in part of the path near Rainsville, AL. This means winds in excess of 200 mph were indicated. The area where the path was upgraded was between Geraldine and Rainsville. The release from NOAA is below: …

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26 May 2011

Radar Images From The Oklahoma Tornadoes

I saved some images as the storms rolled through Oklahoma on Tuesday and just like April 27, they are amazing. Forecasters can work 20 years and see these kind of signatures on radar only once or twice, especially if they work outside of tornado alley. A short description accompanies each image. I will be in Europe on holiday for the next ten days, but I will try to post a …

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