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6 August 2010
La Nina is Brewing – It May Be A Strong One
One of the reasons for the forecasts of a an active hurricane season is the predictions that La Nina would develop this summer. Remember that La Nina is an ocean circulation phase that brings unusually cold water to the surface of the Tropical Pacific. Well, it has started and most of the ocean atmosphere models are predicting a moderate to strong event. This has more impact than just the number …
25 June 2010
Trouble Brewing In The Western Caribbean?
It seems we may have our first Atlantic Basin tropical system forming this evening. I’ve been here in Miami all week at the annual AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology. This is the 38th Broadcast Conference and one of the best I’ve attended. The Director of the National Hurricane Center and many of their forecasters put on an excellent seminar Wednesday on tropical meteorology. Director Bill Read also spoke at our …
26 May 2010
Open Season On Hurricanes (and they may be in a fighting mood.)
Hurricane season begins June 1st and NOAA’s hurricane experts will release their 2010 season forecast Friday 28 May. It’s not much of a secret among meteorologists what it will be. Likely BAD. Forecasting the number of hurricanes we will see each year is a very tricky project. There is some skill but changes in the sea surface temperatures and in the upper level wind shear during the summer months make …
16 September 2009
If a Picture Paints A Thousand Words- Then Look at 3
NASA GISS has the Summer global temp. data online now. August 2009 was the Second warmest on record globally. The Northern Hemisphere meteorological summer of 2009 was the third warmest on record. Only 1998 was warmer. The reason 1998 was so warm is easily explained. The Pacific ocean was incredibly warm that year. The reason? The greatest El Nino event on record. That much warm water heated the surface temperature of …
11 July 2009
To Quote Randy Quaid in Indep. Day- I'm Back! El Nino Returns
El Nino has returned. The NOAA scientists, who monitor the tropical Pacific, sent out the notice this week. Temperatures in what is called the NINO 3.4 region of the Equatorial tropical Pacific, have increased to the point that we can say an El Nino has begun. (The threshold is an anomaly of .5 C) The official definition is a bit more technical and you can find it on this more …
1 September 2008
More Trouble Brewing In The Mid-Atlantic
Looking at the satellite imagery this evening is a scary prospect. Hannah is now a hurricane east of the Bahamas. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance brings it into Savannah or S. Carolina as a minimal hurricane by Friday afternoon. A new tropical storm has formed in the middle of the Tropical Atlantic. This system looks very healthy, and is now named Tropical Storm Ike. I suspect it will become …
31 August 2008
Hurricane Update (video)
I have a screencast update on Hurricane Gustav. It was recorded at 12:30 am (0530Z). I’m still getting used to this software, and it will get better. This is a chance for you to get an in depth look at what I am seeing in the maps as I go through the forecast process. Video is here: GUSTAV UPDATE On the brighter side of things. Meteorological Summer ended at midnight!! …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.