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23 August 2011
Irene Reaches Cat 2 Status and Threatens Bahamas
Hurricane Irene is now away from the Dominican Republic and is gaining strength rapidly this evening, as it moves toward the Bahamas. Intensity forecasts on any tropical system are very difficult but several of the more reliable models are indicating that Irene will reach Cat 3 or perhaps higher. A Category 3 storm is a major hurricane with winds of 154-177 km/hr (83-95knots). Almost all of the track models …
21 August 2011
Irene Getting Stronger- Heads Up To East Coast Residents
Irene is now packing winds of 50 mph, and has become much better organized during the afternoon hours on Sunday. There has been a significant shift in the track guidance overnight with almost all of the NWP models and statistical models are trending toward an east coast threat. A tropical storm watch is now posted for the SE Bahamas and I suspect the government there will raise this …
19 August 2011
Is This Irene In The Making??
GOES image from NOAA/NASA MSFC While Tropical Storm Harvey is approaching Honduras, the most interesting system in the tropics is called Invest97L, and it may be about to become Tropical Storm Irene. There are several numerical weather prediction (NWP) models today that are developing this wave into a strong tropical storm and a few into a hurricane. A word of caution here, the models do this rather frequently and …
28 July 2011
Tropical Storm Don Fights Wind Shear
Tropical Storm Don will likely come ashore near Corpus Christi, TX on Friday evening as a tropical storm and not a hurricane. This is really good news, because it means Texas will get some much-needed rain without significant damage. There are several reasons why it is unlikely that Don will become a hurricane, the chief being the wind shear over the storm. Tropical systems like low wind speeds with …
27 July 2011
Will Tropical Storm Don Bust Texas Drought?
Tropical storm Don formed late this afternoon in the southeast Gulf and it looks likely that it will bring some much-needed rain to Texas in about 3 days. While the waters are very warm in the Gulf, the risk of Don becoming a major hurricane do not look high, and it will likely do more good than harm. This is especially true if it stays below hurricane strength. Wind shear …
26 July 2011
Trouble Brewing In The Tropics?
The tropics have been quiet lately with only some minor tropical storms in the Atlantic that were a threat only to ships and even then a minimal one. That may be about to change though with a tropical wave approaching the Gulf that seems to be holding together. As it moves into the bath tub warm waters of the Gulf, there is a chance for it to begin to …
2 February 2011
Yasi Pounds Queensland, While Chicago Digs Out
Cyclone Yasi hit Queensland with winds gusting to 285 km/hr (177mph). There may have been brief sustained winds at 300km/hr, and this makes Yasi a strong cat 5 cyclone at landfall. The town of Tully has been hit very hard, with 90% of the buildings heavily damaged, according to ABC News Australia. Late reports indicate heavy damage all along the area near landfall. Meanwhile, the blizzard has left 21 inches …
30 August 2010
You do know they just make it up, right??
I always enjoy reading the stories in the Farmers Almanac. It’s been around for a LONG time and they have good basic astronomical info in it. Although you can get much more precise info from free programs like Stellarium. About this time every year they release their forecast for the upcoming winter. TV stations everywhere gobble it up and do news stories on what the coming winter will be like. …
23 August 2010
Tropics Are Heating Up
We are now in the peak of the hurricane season and the Tropical Atlantic is heating up. The second hurricane of the season formed this afternoon in the mid Atlantic. Hurricane Danielle will likely re-curve though and not affect North America. There is a slight chance of it approaching the NE coast of the U.S. or Canada. More interesting is the strong tropical wave coming off of Africa behind it. …
10 August 2010
Tropical Storm Forming Off of Florida? (Update: Tropical Depression 5 Now)
There are strong signs that the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf is beginning to get organized today. Pressures are dropping and there seems to be a circulation already present. I suspect the the folks at the NHC in Miami will begin advisories on it later today. If it makes it to tropical storm strength it will be named Danielle. While it is a bit early to talk about …