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24 November 2010

More Chimneys (See Magma Cum Laude) and a Diamond Dust Pilar

Magma Cum Laude has a great post with a shot of the “chimneys” in Upstate New York. Here is mine. This chimney is in Banff Nat. Park, just outside of Banff, Alberta. A few days later I saw this. The photo was taken at 4,000 meters, on top of Telescope Mountain, above Banff. It was very cold (-25C) and the air was very dry. Tiny ice crystals in the air …

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31 May 2010

The Oil Approaches

The oil gets closer. One report has it less than 17 miles off of Dauphin Island Al. The model guidance is all showing a south to SW flow at the surface and this will push the oil in a NE direction. NOAA’s ocean current models are similar. See the previous post for more on the oil and related info. Samantha Joy is a scientist with the Univ. of Georgia who …

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18 May 2010

Oil Slick Entering the Gulf Loop Current (Trust me, that's bad)

The Gulf Loop current may very well be picking up the oil slick in the Gulf. This would bring the oil down through the Florida Keys and into the Gulf Stream. Eventually passing between Florida and the Bahamas. Oil in this area could cause severe damage to ocean reefs in the Keys and near the Bahamas. The ocean current models show the path of the loop current very well. This …

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10 May 2010

Oil, Ash and Deadly Tornadoes

It’s been a busy month for those of us who forecast weather.  Tracking volcanic ash using upper level wind forecast and using ocean current models to track the growing oil slick in the Gulf. Today it was a little of all three. Oklahoma was hit by a swarm of tornadoes today. At least 4 are dead. Many people have lost there homes. Cars and large trucks were flipped in the …

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8 May 2010

New Views of Iceland Ash Cloud & Gulf Oil Slick. Bad news on both.

The winds aloft are blowing the ash mainly over the Atlantic today. Some of it is rotating around an upper level low and causing problems in Spain. The wind flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere will blow it more toward the UK and Europe starting late Sunday.  Heathrow and Gatwick could very well be affected. The ash is up to around 5,000 meters today. Transatlantic flights can get …

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7 May 2010

Oil and Ash from Space- Update

The upper level winds are not blowing the ash toward the UK today and that is very good news. If they were, there would be widespread cancellations of flights. The cloud is especially thick. The good news is that late today the eruption has become much quieter and the ash is not as high as earlier. Geological experts in Iceland are reporting that there are no signs the eruption will …

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4 May 2010

Flood Waters and Ash From Space

The ash is back. Ireland has just announced airspace closings for tomorrow and there is now concern that the ash may start to seriously effect flights in the UK. If Gatwick and Heathrow in London shut down the impact will be felt worldwide. Looking at the model data tonight, the greatest threat seems to be Ireland but there may be a narrow window late tomorrow when the ash will be …

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3 May 2010

Is The Ash Coming Back?? Maybe

Ireland is closing it’s airspace at 7am Tuesday morning because of ash. The ash is below 20,000 feet so it may not be too disruptive to transatlantic air traffic. The ash is expected to drift over the UK later Tuesday and this may impact Heathrow and Gatwick. If that happens, you will see major disruptions. Below is the latest forecast from the UK Met office: The eruption shows no sign …

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19 April 2010

Gorgeous NASA Shot of Iceland Ash Cloud- Heathrow Reopening?? (Updated 0230GMT)

There is actually some good news tonight. The ash cloud over Europe has diminished and begun to sink south of Paris and London. Here is the outlook for tomorrow regarding the no go areas. Late word tonight that the eruption has picked back up. The current wind flow will steer the new ash cloud toward the UK, Central England in particular. So the openings of the airports tomorrow may be …

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18 April 2010

Iceland Volcano Quieting Down??

The weather radar at the Keflivik Airport is not seeing a plume from the ash cloud this evening. The last report from the UK Met. Office is a plume height of 16,000 feet. This is much lower than over much of the last 72 hours. There is also good news on the flight restrictions. The lower levels are looking much better. It looks possible that flights could operate from Paris …

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