18 September 2019
Arctic Sea Ice Melt May be 2nd Lowest On Record
Posted by Dan Satterfield
The summer melt of the Arctic sea ice is nearly done and the numbers are flirting with being the 2nd lowest on record. 2012 is the lowest and this year will not be as low but still at alarming levels. The real change is the loss of the multi ice that lasts from year to year. This “old” ice is nearly gone and you can see it disappear in this animation from NASA:
The ice levels now are likely the lowest in the last 1500 years according to a 2011 paper in Nature.
Here is the Arctic Sea Ice Extent from the NSIDC. Note that this year is the blue line.
Alarming point, rather spoilt by very poor use of the English language ! Rather than refer to the ice-levels being low, the writer has inadvertently referred to the “ice melt levels” being lower – thereby meaning that the ice levels were in fact rising ! Unfortunately USA citizens rarely seem to display much ability when using the English language…
Pity, as the World often emulates USA English, much to its detriment as a sophisticated precise means of communication! – Viola!
However, please keep the articles coming . .me being rather pedantic perhaps – The U.K. press is now also riddled with grammatical nasties!!!
My best friend lives in Wales and he echoes your sentiments I am sure!
Dan
I have seen that video before and am always shocked by the dramatic decline in multi-year ice. The ice free Arctic for late summer seems more likely now then ever and with that will come increased warming of the Arctic Ocean. The warming and decline in ice cover also leaves the methane encased in permafrost on the continental shelves more likely to warm and discharge into the atmosphere. That methane discharge is already ongoing at a relatively low rate at present.
We are already well into a positive feedback with the warming of the Arctic. The date of an Arctic free ice cover in summer is impossible to forecast given the variability in weather, but it is likely more imminent with the extent and volume at such low levels. Within five years seems realistic at least for late summer. That 4 million threshold is quite fragile at this point.