7 March 2019
Thoughts on the Lee County Alabama Tornado: Worthless Sirens and Unsafe Mobile Homes
Posted by Dan Satterfield
I’m hearing the same familiar refrain after the Lee County Alabama tornado last week. Newspaper reports saying there was little warning while residents say they never heard the sirens.
Sirens Are So Last Century
Let’s get the sirens out of the way first. They are not (and never were) designed to be heard indoors. We are talking 1930’s technology, and while some days it may not seem like it, we are living in 2019. People have smart-phones that make Star Trek communicators look old fashioned, and every one of them will alert you to severe weather warnings. Weather sirens are so last century and frankly are a total waste of tax money except in a few specific locations. There are better and more cost-effective ways to alert people to severe weather danger.
Would You Believe,
that TV stations were inundated with complaints about interrupting programming and these continued even after it became clear that a deadly tornado had struck? There were even complaints for days after about missed programs. I’ve been doing TV weathercasts for 39 years and one thing I quickly learned is that these folks are are a very loud minority.
Fact: TV stations will continue to interrupt for tornado warnings. Our policy at WBOC here in Maryland is we interrupt for the duration no matter what when a Tornado Warning is issued. That even includes our own newscasts and most every TV stations have similar policies, In short, you are wasting your time complaining and my friend Dennis Mersereau (a superb science writer) has an excellent piece in Forbes that goes into greater detail on why.
Plenty of Warning
The Storm Prediction Center issued an outlook 24 hours in advance of the tornado that was dead on. They issued a Watch more than 2 hours before the storm and they deserve credit for what I would almost label an eerily accurate forecast. Most residents had at least 9 minutes under a Tornado Warning before the monster cloud with 170 mph winds developed at 2 PM CST last Sunday.
The Tornado Watch was issued by the SPC at 11:40 AM CST. That is over 2 hours before the tornado formed. Read the wording below:
It’s clear that residents had plenty of warning that deadly weather was possible, but 23 died and 90 were injured along the 23-mile path of the EF 4 tornado. Why such a high death toll with all that warning?
Mobile Homes
I have yet to see a breakdown of the deaths by location, but I can almost guarantee you that most will be in mobile homes. You can survive an Ef 4 tornado in a house if you take good cover, but even an EF 3 will destroy a mobile home. An EF 2 will almost destroy one in many cases. Houses are far safer places to be, and I have a friend who is one of the few people who survived (barely) a direct hit by an EF 5 in a brick home. She was very lucky because most homes will be pulverized by an EF 5.
Harold Brooks (my go-to expert on these kinds of things ) at the National Severe Storms Lab. did a study in the 1990s on the relative risk of death in mobile homes and found that you are 22.6 times more likely to be killed in a mobile home than elsewhere in a tornado. You can read the study here. You can also look at a summary of the deaths over the past ten years (by location) on the SPC website. Note that while only a small percentage of people live in mobile homes they account for an equal number or more of deaths compared to homes.
How Do We Fix This?
For many people in this country, a mobile home is their only affordable option and you can be safe in one if you follow one sensible rule:
Leave for a safe place when a Tornado Watch is issued.
The problem is that few people do, and even fewer know how much greater their risk of death is if they stay. Try passing any type of law informing mobile home buyers of this risk and you will run into a wall of opposition from the manufactured housing lobby.
TV stations often get heat from mobile home advertisers when we meteorologists point out on air that you should leave a mobile home during a tornado watch. I was once forbidden (for nearly a year) while working in Alabama- to read on air the words “abandon mobile homes” that are on every NOAA tornado warning. I was also told to remove it from weather crawls because of complaints from mobile home advertisers.
So good luck passing any kind of regulation to better inform mobile home residents. I’ll believe it when I see it. In the meantime, we will continue to have an inordinate number of deaths in these trailers, and all we can do is keep telling people that you need to leave when severe weather threatens. In most cases, this will only be for a few hours each year, but few will do so. Everyone thinks it will never happen to them until it does.
In the meantime, sirens are not the answer, while the warning from NOAA is a superb example of how incredibly good severe weather prediction has become. It’s a whole new world but many are still living in the old one. We have to fix our mobile home tornado problem, and looking at the faces of those beautiful young kids who lost their lives last Sunday is reason enough.
the solution is Community storm shlters mandated per ratio of mobile home residents. Make community storm shelters required for any park with 5 or more mobile homes or a community shelter per 20 mobile homes in a particular area. Simply telling people to flee to some unknown location is ridiculous.
Unfortunately, it often takes a tragedy like this in one’s own back yard to make the threat real. The massive destruction of the Nov. 15, 1989 tornado in Huntsville, Al. sensitized the residents of northern Al. to the need for building tornado shelters in areas with large concentrations of mobile homes and to everyone having a NOAA weather radio or similar warning device available.
It also caused one of our tv stations to hire Dan Satterfield, whose no nonsense, cut-to the chase coverage doubtless save many lives in the ensuing years.
“Why such a high death toll with all that warning?”
It is unfortunate that Dan conflated a tornado watch with a tornado warning. In fact, this was not an optimal performance by the warning system, unfortunately.
The advance forecast (depicted on the U.S. map) was quite good geographically but an “underforecast” in terms of risk. There are five levels to these forecasts. It forecasted a 3 (enhanced risk) when the correct forecast would have been a 5 (high risk). Regardless, that is not a product that is intended for the public at large. Most aren’t aware these forecasts exist.
The tornado watch was quite good. Bravo!
However, the tornado warning was only out five minutes before the first Lee County damage occurred. That is a subpar performance based on national tornado warning “lead time” statistics. While five minutes is adequate time in, say, Kansas where just about everyone has a basement, it is not enough time in the South where few have them.
We meteorologists, as a group, tend to get defensive when one of these major tornado outbreaks occur. We should try to remove emotions and look at the facts objectively. That is the only way in which we will improve.
Finally, I believe it is unrealistic to ask people to leave their mobile homes every time a tornado watch is issued. I suggest asking people to leave when a severe thunderstorm warning is issued during a tornado watch.
Thank you for your insights. I’m not from Alabama, I currently live in Birmingham. I don’t understand why there is not legislation (because owners of the mobile home parks don’t do it) that the owners of the parks install tornado shelters. Even apartment complexes don’t really have shelters. We lived in a 3rd floor apartment for a while and has to seek shelter in the laundry room of the club house. It just seems like vulnerable living areas should have a safe zone.
Tell those of us who live in mobile homes where to go. We have pets that we would have with us. Our town is fifteen minutes away. Where do we go? And at what time do we leave? We can be under a watch for hours and the system be far away. We would love to have a storm shelter but cannot afford one. Also, if your mobile home has been added onto, is it any safer?
And we are in that neverland that the fcc won’t allow to have our own State’s channels, and the coverage we are supposed to have is non existent.
It’s good to see directness of this kind on almost everything you’ve written about in these astute and frank comments. However, although sirens are so “last century” I would disagree you about getting rid of them altogether, even while I agree that it is vital that jurisdictions utilize available technology to create more effective warning systems.
The reason I would not get rid of the sirens is the always essential need in emergencies for great redundancy in messaging. Technology failures do happen, for instance. And real life happens too. Someone’s phone is inside the house while they’re outside working in the yard. A grandmother or college student is driving a highway with only a “dumb” phone. There are other scenarios as well. Simply put, the more means by which warnings can be sent — and received with enough time to act — the greater likelihood otherwise preventable injuries and deaths can be avoided. So I would not vote for consigning the sirens to the junkyard. Use them, but yes, I indeed agree, also move on to more effective and robust communications.
Anyone with any common sense should know to get out of a mobile home in a tornado warning.
Possibly, as Indiana has required that with every sale of a mobile home a NOAA Weather Radio is included.
An easy fix is to get the president to make some sort of passage similar to Indiana’s law?
But, the problem is, most people do not believe it will ever happen to them. Plus, the public complains about everything, including as mentioned interrupting a broadcast during a warning. Imagine if residents in a mobile home went to a family members house for a tornado watch and a tornado hits the house they’re in to escape and not the mobile home?
So many variables, so many complaints, so many things that could and won’t save lives. Other then the general public being aware and prepared for severe weather.
The only way to be a Weather Ready Nation is to make it a mandatory class in high school to teach the next generations how to be ready and aware of major disasters from tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, winter storms etc.
Otherwise, we will always have injured and fatalities caused by mother nature’s wrath.
Thank you for a spot on piece & for the weather reports available on FB & cell phone weather apps when fronts R converging. Those reports tell me when to start paying close attention. Also thankful for public service calls to our homes like the one I heard telling us to take shelter NOW when this system approached my home this day in SE Alabama!
I agree and disagree. Sirens are good but not perfect but radio , telephone , cell phone and television should cover the way notifications are made. Neighbors should let neighbors know but some don’t. I lived through hurricane Michael and saw mobile homes survive with no damage and houses destroyed , steel buildings completely destroyed it’s just wrong place wrong time. I called my kids and grandchildren told them watch the news and plan their escape route if needed. The only thing we can do is to be aware of the situation and react intelligently. People smoke and know it’s bad and the same mentality applies to people in mobile homes , that their house will be fine.
I feel that everything you’ve said here is spot on. I do live in east Texas and we have our fair share of tornados. We also have our fair share of trailer houses and my family and I live in a double wide. None the less , I have several apps on my phone as does my wife and kids that warn us in the event of a tornado as well as weather radars. When we are warned, we are alert and we go somewhere else for a bit till the threat is gone. I’d rather be a little aggravated than dead! It breaks my heart to hear of all the lives lost in Lee Co last weekend, that could have completely been avoided. Your doing an awesome job at what you do, keep it up!
Jeff Mason
Overton, Tx
I totally agree with u! I live in the FL panhandle and knew this strong storm was forecast for Sunday as few day before. I remembering Saturday the area was upgraded to an enhanced area. I’m still amazed that so many people chose to ride out Hurricane Michael in their mobile homes along the panhandle!! I sincerely hope that the message gets out that weather alerts and abandon mobile homes will be heard!
It’s too bad that mobile home owners don’t get Tornado shelters too. And if it’s a Mobilehome park in Tornado Alleys they would provide a safe shelter for people to go to .
I know that’s alot of expense , but look at the cost of people hurt or killed in these cases , even worse the grief and devastation that comes too .
We take all kinds of precautions for things that might happen . Then should be another one !
THis is so heartbreaking! I live in a mobile home. I am very lucky because our EMA had a grant for storm shelters in the county I live in. We had it installed and I use it!! I stay on top of any weather or remote chance of bad weather! My heart hurts for the families in Lee County.
I am an Emergency Manager and one of my jobs was public warning for a million residents of Montgomery County, MD. Very few warning systems are 100 percent. Sirens were taken out of county service 20 years ago. Sirens are not effective because in many rural locations they are used to activate the local fire department. I would like to see a new catagory for Tornado Emergency. Make it a different tone. Now the trailer issue is a no win situation. Trailers are in many cases the only affordable option living in the South East U.S. I am not sure any code change will eliminate and EF1 or higher flipping one over. They are just not built for those kinda winds.
Every mobile home should have a safe room, by law
Dan, thanks. We have sirens neer us, and can just bareky hear tgemninside tge house, but outside, they are useful, except if the wind is blowing from where we are to the siren.
In our house, we have a weather radio, and on my computers I have both the Doppler Radar National Mosiac and the NWS radar image from Columbus AFB, Huntsville or Memphis on a different tab, depending on which direction the storm is coming. This last tab outlines where tornado warnings, storm boundaries, and other storms are. Given that most computer and apps follow ones location, it would be great that when a tornado/storm envelopes ones location a notice is posted.
Additionally, with SmartPhones, tgis type of notice wouid be even easier.
Spot on. Some people can’t pour piss out of a boot with the directions on the heel. In the words of the great philosopher,” you can’t fix stupid”( Ron White). Well maybe not great or philosopher. But true..
Excellent post, Dan. I couldn’t agree with you more about mobile homes and tornadoes. They are simply ‘death traps” when it comes to them being in the path of an oncoming tornado. With the proliferation of cell phones and cell phone coverage, I’m wondering if it might be possible (over time) to legislate that tornado warnings be transmitted automatically over cell phones once released or initiated by the NWS. Maybe better: when a Tornado Watch is released by NWS. I know this might seem like an uphill battle (people wanting control over their cell phone alerts), but it certainly might be a way to save lives – especially for people who can only afford to live in a mobile home.
They are, you just have to turn it on.
This is a great and informative article except for one thing. Despite having my smartphone set to receive all hazards, I have never received any weather warnings. You see, I live in North Carolina, pinging off a cell tower in Georgia, while in the CWA of the Morristown, TN WSFO. Fortunately, I am also a SKYWARN spotter so I have a NOAA SAME Weather Radio which alerts me for both watches and warnings.
You’re making assumptions that everybody watches television and or carries a smartphone. Vague reports several hours in advance aren’t the answer either. And not everybody has a place to go to when they leave a mobile home. So by the time a storm is imminent people have 9 minutes and nowhere to go. It may be frustrating for those who have nice homes and places to go but some of us don’t.
Which is why you need to go to a safe place when a Tornado Watch is issued, and you should make sure your community has a public shelter. The Watch for the Lee county tornado was issued well before the warnings. Residents had plenty of time to leave the mobile homes that were hit. If you live in a mobile home, you need to take the responsibility to be weather aware and have a place to go when the threat of severe weather exists. Watches last only for a few hours and you will only be inconvenienced a few times per year. It could very well save your life though. PS I’d guess that 99% of the population of adults fits into the watches TV and or carries a smart-phone. A NOAA radio is less than 30$ for those that do not.
I agree…people need to evacuate mobile homes on severe weather threats. I also know from personal experience that mobile home sales persons will tell you that you can have the mh doubled tired down. They also pitch the newer homes are sheet rock and 2×4s. They leave you feeling your buying a solid home. Protected. It’s a huge lie.
I was in Beauregard, Al. At my son’s mobile home when the stroms began. I knew on Friday we were in for a ruff day. On Sunday morning I was tired. I traveled. Had opening day for baseball. All I really wanted to do was sit around with the grandkids and enjoy my time with them. The thought of staying put crossed my mind. However, I’ve never seen a good result in a mobile home. I then decided we would take the kids to a movie. Knowing I could seek shelter there. I picked a movie because no where offered shelter. I had no other family or friends in that town. Also, I knew it would distract the kids so they wouldn’t worry. I packed the kids and left well before the storm began.
Not long after the movie started. I got my first tornado warning on my phone. I left it on due to weather. I looked around. No one one moved from their seats. I however went out. I found an employee. I asked where is the safest spot in the building. That employee didn’t know. That warning lifted soon after I asked. So I go back into the movie and sit down. Only to have my phone flash yet another warning. I went into the hall. I needed to tune in to fb live local weather. After all. Noone in the theater was taking action. I’m now listening to my phone. It’s a confirmed tornado on the ground. Packing 150 mph winds. It was several county’s over. It was reported on the ground in Auburn. So again, I search for management to find the protocol for severe weather threats in the area. By then only about a dozen people came into the halls. I was answering their questions about what was going on. However most the movie goer’s where still in the theater watching a movie. By now it’s in Smith’s station Al. Headed where we are. I finially seen the manager. I asked her where was the safest place in the theater. She replies while walking away, “the theater is the safest place in bad weather”. She added, “people come to the movie to get out of bad weather”. I then knew I had no help. I grabbed some hollow bottom hard plastic booster seats. I had my daughter grab my grandkids and move to the back rows of the theater. I hunkered them in place. Telling them to cover their heads with the booster seats. I shared that idea in the hall with others. That idea didn’t fly because noone took me up on it.
The tornado made it way to Columbus, Ga. You could feel it’s power in your bones. I didn’t panic. I was extremely nervous. Something just felt very strange. It hit a few miles above us. The warning that made one hour feel like forever finially got lifted.
Not long after the second warning. There came a third warning. Now mind you the movie theater was 1:45 long. Here I go again. I took the same precautions as the last. People exiting and entering. Staff finially got called into the halls and away from the glass counters, doors and windows. Management barely present.
Oh..let me add. During the second warning, I asked if she was going to stop the shows and let people know what’s going on. She replies she cannot stop the shows because she’d have to pass out refunds.
The last tornado hit the same path as the one before. It perhaps wasn’t as long. It lifted quickly. I could leave. What a nightmare place to seek shelter.
The thing is most people in that area do not take warnings seriously. Mainly because we have never in my 52 years living there had a tornado of this size or last on the ground as long as it did. We get rotation in the storm that will set off the warning systems almost every single time. We’ve had minor tornados. Take a few roofs and some trees but never one like we had in Sunday. So in this towns defense. We’ve never faced what we faced. The sireens are like the story about the boy who cried wolf. Noone believes them. Also, many of thosw who passed away, were elderly. Also, that particular area barely has WiFi or cable. I’d say many didn’t really know what was headed their way. Many elderly do not stay on social media.
We are really lucky it didn’t hit a populated area…let’s be real. Have you seen the flattener houses in that area. Dirt is all that’s left where once stood a house. Churches made of brick vanished. Signs from stores found five towns over. The truth is, in a tornado this size. The best shelter is underground. I expect to see these types of shelters in Arkansas. But just like snow in the south. No one is prepared or has the means. I’ve never seen a true shelter in that entire area.
I agree and appreciate most you said. I agree people need to always take shelter. I agree Mobile homes are in no way safe. I never like to see anyone get angry or rude over severe weather break ins in TV. However I do believe you should think a bit further before you make a report on those in this particular storm. In that particular area. Consider their ages. And also consider their experience.
My beliefs are that this will now grab peoples opinions. I believe they will do more and take shelter next time.
Best regards
All Mobile home sellers should be required to furnish an installed storm shelter with each home! Each mobile home park should be required to have a storm shelter large enough for all who reside in the park.
Truer words have never been spoken my friend. The mobile home problem has a simple solution, require mobile home manufacturers to make at least one bathroom or closet a safe room. Have a 6ft X 6ft X 4ft deep concrete pad poured at the homesite and said saferoom is connected to pad via steel rigging. Trailer gets blown away, saferrom stays put just like in a conventional brick home.
It is unbelievable and unacceptable that a TV weather person can be forbidden to use the same words that are in a NOAA tornado warning. I rarely comment, but this is pretty damn important and something needs to be done. I remember many years ago when you were in Huntsville and I lived in Athens. You took all kinds of heat when that tornado hit Toney, AL just after the time that kids got home from school. You were concerned about children who might be at home in that area without an adult. You directed them to turn up the TV as loud as they could, get into a closet or interior bathroom with pillows over their heads and not to come out until he gave them the all clear. There were a lot of latchkey kids at that point in time. To me, that was the responsible thing to do. Parents said you scared kids. Well frankly, I would rather have my kids scared than dead. I was so happy when I lived in Somerset County Maryland for 2 1/2 years to see that you were at WBOC. Folks in that area of Maryland are lucky to have you.
Such a great meteorologist who’s insight, passion, and compassion are missed by so many in the Tennessee Valley.
I will forever remain weather aware due to your teaching and especially loved when you would address the latch key children on afternoons when severe weather was rolling through.
Thnx Laura. I appreciate it!
Dan
Just because something is deemed a good suggestion doesn’t mean a law needs to be written to enforce it. This was a tragic event and even well built homes are not guaranteed safe during severe weather.
It is true that well-built homes are not always safe places but the key point here is that 90 mph winds will not usually destroy a regular home built to modern codes. They will often destroy a mobile home. Now, the odds of having 150 mph winds in a tornado are very low, but 90 mph winds happen with much greater frequency. EF 1 and EF 2 tornadoes are fairly common but an EF 4 or 5 is a very rare storm. This is why about half of deaths and injuries from severe weather happen in mobile homes while they only make up ~ 10% of homes!
My first thought when I heard about this in Eva, AL was “OMGosh! Did they have no warning?” I am sorry for the loss of life and home, but we do need to use our heads during a watch/warning – I know, cause I was the only one wiped out April 2014 in Cullman, AL. Didn’t want to leave my trailer because it was raining and “that would never happen to me…” Nothing left but the bathroom closet! Praying strength, courage and hope to all who lost loved ones and homes.
Relative to the sirens, I remember I was maybe eight or ten when my Dad announced he had just figured out why the siren at the fire station in town often went off right before a bad thunderstorm–it wasn’t just a fire siren, it was also a storm siren! Now, my Dad is an intelligent, well-informed person (he told me about climate change sometime around 1983). That he listened to that siren for almost a decade before figuring out what it meant–and obviously without being told by town officials–is another reason the siren was pointless. And the kicker of it is we had that conversation a few years AFTER we got hit by a tornado. Fortunately, we didn’t need the siren to tell us to get inside.