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You are browsing the archive for 2016 June 06.

6 June 2016

Why Hurricane Season Forecasts are Very Tricky

I’m not a fan of long-range forecasts for the hurricane season. We need to attempt them, because that’s how science advances, we test hypothesis, and reject the ones that fail in an experiment. That said, I am not sure these forecasts are worthy of public dissemination, unless they come with a strong warning that the skill is low. You may know that El Nino reduces the number of hurricanes and …

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