You are browsing the archive for 6 June 2016 - Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal.
6 June 2016
Why Hurricane Season Forecasts are Very Tricky
I’m not a fan of long-range forecasts for the hurricane season. We need to attempt them, because that’s how science advances, we test hypothesis, and reject the ones that fail in an experiment. That said, I am not sure these forecasts are worthy of public dissemination, unless they come with a strong warning that the skill is low. You may know that El Nino reduces the number of hurricanes and …