15 October 2015

NOAA Issues Long Range Winter Outlook

Posted by Dan Satterfield

Long range forecasts tend to often turn out badly, but with the very strong El Nino this year there is higher confidence than usual. That said, take this with a grain of salt! I’ll be posting more about this in coming days (and sharing some opinions from others as well). One note here, and that’s how to interpret the maps below.

It’s better to look at it in Yoda fashion, and by that I mean this: In Michigan a wet winter is unlikely, and in Southern California a very dry winter is quite unlikely as well. In the southern U.S. a warmer than normal winter is also very unlikely but it may be near or below. Looking at the odds in this fashion, is more correct than saying a warm winter here or a cold winter there. My own opinion as of today is that the precip. forecast looks fairly reasonable, but I’m not so convinced on the temperature outlook. Also remember these are 3 month averages. This does not mean that Detroit will not have a flood event or that a blast of frigid air will bring heavy snow to Boston again!


3mnth precip 3month tmps