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You are browsing the archive for 2015 January 30.

30 January 2015

We Must Do A Better Job of Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

My wife says that most of her friends have no idea about how I make a forecast, and I suspect that some believe I just get it from the NWS, without thinking how even they might do it. Many folks do understand we use numerical models but beyond that it’s hazy, and they think that if the forecast is wrong, it’s because the model was bad, not the interpretation of it. …

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