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You are browsing the archive for 2014 October 16.

16 October 2014

The Winter Forecast Is Out, and It’s Probably Wrong!

  NOAA Released the 2014/2015 winter forecast today and it is probably wrong. I’m not taking a slam at NOAA here, they will also admit to you that the odds are that this forecast will not be correct. The truth is, that any forecast beyond 5-7 days has very low skill. That said, we cannot learn to make long-range forecasts unless we try, and that’s how science works: we make …

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Well Worth a Read: How Did We Become a Society Suspicious of Science?

I spotted this piece tonight by Keith Parsons a Professor of Philosophy at the Univ. of Houston-Clear lake. Well worth a read! He has a real point and it reminds me of Richard Feynman’s great quote: “Science is what we do keep from lying to ourselves”.

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The Ebola Outbreak Is Proof That We Humans Are Terrible at Evaluating Risk

There are at least 5,000 dead of Ebola in Africa and it is a real human tragedy no doubt, but when I turned on CNN Tuesday to get the latest on what is happening there, I ended up watching nearly two hours of news about two patients who have contracted the disease in America. They are still alive, and hopefully with good care will beat the disease, but I must …

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