18 February 2012

Significant Snow Event For Mid Atlantic- Delmarva??

Posted by Dan Satterfield


High reolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model of snowfall over the next 60 hours. While models are never spot on, the odds are high that KY,WV, and Central Virginia will see snow Sunday. It will overspread Delaware and the Eastern Shore of MD Sunday night. Click image for higher res.


This is teh snowfall forecast from the NWS in Baltimore. It only includes their county warning area. Click image to see larger version.

Several inches of snow may fall over the next 48 hours in the Mid Atlantic. It looks now as if the heavier snows will be SW of the Washington/Baltimore area but an inch or two is possible even there and out onto the Delmarva. I’m moving to Salisbury on the Eastern Shore in a couple of weeks (will be forecasting WBOC TV). As a snow lover, all I have to say is that it could have waited until I got there!

Those of you in areas of Virginia, from Richmond back into Kentucky and WV, may see several inches of snow. Something there has been very little of this winter. In the DC area, this winter is one of the least snowiest in record so far, and the warm ground will likely melt a lot of what does fall. Steve Scolnik over at Capital Climate has a nice post on how events like this in the past have turned out.

Snow forecasting is always difficult, and there seems to be a lot of extra uncertainty in the NWP models with this system. The cold air may not be all that cold either, and unlike most winters, the air that flows into the Mid Atlantic will be travelling over bare ground instead of snow cover. That can make a significant difference, but if you really want a good chance of sledding in some deep snow, head to Bath County, Virginia.

I’ll bet they get over 5 inches there.