21 September 2011
Tropical storm Ophelia is looking a little better organized this afternoon with winds near 60 mph just outside the center. While it is feeling like fall across much of North America, the tropical waters are still quite warm and we will likely see a couple of more storms.
The risk of landfall seems pretty low as the NWP models are all re-curving the system into the North Atlantic after 4 days. This makes very good sense because a strong upper level low pressure system will be over the Eastern Seaboard by then, so my confidence is high that it will indeed re-curve.