4 September 2011

Quick Update on Tropical Storm Lee

Posted by Dan Satterfield


NWP models are still indicating very heavy rains from LA into East TN. Click for full res. Ctsy. Ryan Maue at FSU.


GOES images from NASA still show intense convection on the Gulf and this leads me to believe in the NWP predictions of extreme rainfall.

TS Lee is dumping very heavy rains along the coast tonight and moving very slowly onshore west of Baton Rouge, LA. The heavy rains are forecast to move into central AL on Sunday and then into North AL (my location) by Sunday night. While the winds may never allow Lee to be called a hurricane, the strong Canadian high pressure system moving down from the north may give 40 kt. winds to much of North AL by Monday. The wind is based on the difference in pressure across an area and even of the remains of Lee are not that strong, the pressure gradient between these two systems may be intense.

The track forecasts are in good agreement and take Lee into NE Alabama by late Tuesday, but I am not convinced it will move as fast as they indicate, especially later in the period. If it stalls, this will increase rainfall and could still cause severe flooding. The greatest threat of this happening is in Alabama, the way it looks now.

Scott Bachmeier at the CIMMS satellite blog has some more info on Lee here. A must read for fellow remote sensing fans.