26 August 2011
Irene’s Core Heads for The Big Apple; Hurricane Warning for New York
Posted by Dan Satterfield
Irene is now a cat two storm and the wind shear has weakened it just a bit today. The wind field is very large though and flood models are indicating that it will produce significant flooding, perhaps as high as a category two storm in some places. Winds may gust to hurricane force in NYC, but sustained winds will likely be at tropical storm strength as it passes, and it will not be moving that fast- so some heavy rains up to 8 inches+ are possible. A storm surge of 4 to as much as 8 feet is possible along, and to the right of the center of Irene, as she makes landfall in New England. Over ten feet of surge is possible in extreme eastern VA and NC.
A southwesterly shear is present over the storm, (notice the lack of outflow in the south and SW quadrants of the storm) so it is unlikely that it will strengthen, but it will lose intensity very slowly, and massive power outages along the eastern seaboard are LIKELY as it moves through.
Drier air will flow into the deep south behind Irene and give residents there a break from the high heat and humidity of August.
Thanks for the update. I live in Harvest, Al and I have been watching Irene. It looks like it is going to hit Ocean City, Maryland pretty hard. Do you agree?
The Maryland shore will get some sig flooding and wind. Homes near the bay/sound/seaside will have a high threat of water damage/inundation.
Thanks Dan. I have family in Maryland right now. Not really in Ocean City but in Gambrills I have a lot of family and friends. Gambrills is right out side of Baltimore and about 30 minutes away from Washington, D.C. What are the threats for that area?