27 July 2011
Tropical storm Don formed late this afternoon in the southeast Gulf and it looks likely that it will bring some much-needed rain to Texas in about 3 days. While the waters are very warm in the Gulf, the risk of Don becoming a major hurricane do not look high, and it will likely do more good than harm. This is especially true if it stays below hurricane strength. Wind shear is likely to say fairly low and a slow increase in strength is likely. The system will pass near a layer of rather deep warm water in the next 24 hours and this will be favourable for development.
Most of the guidance models track it toward Texas, and my confidence is fairly high in that forecast. Tropical storms have been great drought busters in Texas in the past, and this one looks promising..