15 May 2011
The Great Mississippi Flood Rolls South
Posted by Dan Satterfield
The image below is the Miss. River on 10 May, 2010 from NASA’s Aqua satellite.
The image below is 6 May, 2011
Now the reason why; the image below is the rainfall departure from normal over the past 30 days.
Click the image for the full resolution.
Late word (this evening), that the Morganza spillway has been opened to reduce the threat of massive flooding in the cities along the river. The spillway was last opened in 1954 1973 and was completed in 1954, but it looks as if this flood will be far worse, and the opening will submerge nearly 8,000 square kilometers (3,000 sq. miles) of land. See the map below from the US Army Corps of Engineers.
From USACE- click for higher resolution image. Purple is water inundation from 0-5 ft. Yellow is over 15 feet!
Thousands of people will now have to be evacuated and many homes, businesses and farms will go underwater, and not just for a few days, it will be weeks. Well over a billion dollars has been spent to keep the Mississippi from changing naturally to a new channel, and Jeff Masters has a great writeup on his blog today. He links to a fabulous article by John Mcphee about the Mississippi, and the folly of fighting it. McPhee is justly famous for the best book on Geology ever written. It’s a doorstop, but well worth reading (it’s on my must have list in case of being stranded on a tropical island!).
WHAT CAUSED IT
Flooding along the Miss. is a natural occurrence, but it’s interesting to look at the very warm Gulf right now. Temps. are running about 1-2 C above normal, and NASA just released their global temp. data; this April was surpassed in land and ocean warmth by only 3 other years (all of which were in this century). Is this the cause? No, but the added warmth of the planet makes these events more likely to occur.
WORSE TO COME?
The food control structures on the Miss. are being strained to their design limits and more flood gates may be opened (leaving more land submerged), to keep the Miss. from going her own way. If the wet pattern of early April makes a return appearance in May, all bets are off.
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.
Check the history on the Morganza spillway. I believe you will find that it was opened for the first, and until now only, time in 1973. It was completed in 1954. cf. http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/morganza.asp Consider your blog peer reviewed!
Absolutely correct Joseph- many thanks for catching that- post corrected.
I appreciate your honesty in reporting factual information, and your honesty in admitting the oversight.
What does this mean to any oil that has seeped into the low grounds or that has came into the delta? Will in “flush” any deposits back into the gulf?
Very good question Toni. Not exactly sure, but I do know that much of the flooded area (from opening the Morganza) will be in areas that had little or no oil. Closer to the Delta is another question. Will keep an eye open for info.