24 April 2010
New model guidance tonight indicates that wind shear and instability will be very conducive for the formation of super-cell thunderstorms and some long track tornadoes.
The greatest threat will exist from mid morning Saturday through the early evening hours over the high risk area. A large moderate risk area surrounds the high risk.
If you live in a mobile home in the high risk area, you should make plans to go to a better shelter when a tornado watch is issued. Your risk of being injured is much higher in a mobile home.
A very strong low level jet stream is already developing tonight and this will aide in supplying a deep layer of warm moist air to the region ahead of a strong cold front. The winds are increasing with height and are also veering from south to west as you get higher. This combination will allow thunderstorms to grow very strong and last for several hours.
Any severe storms or tornadoes that develop will be moving from southwest to northeast at speeds of 80-90 km/hr (50 mph+).