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Fire Probability

Fire Probability

Many people don’t realize that there are multiple global climate projections being produced by various labs and agencies, and we don’t know which model will come closest to simulating the actual future climate. The mean change in fire probability (left panels) should thus be interpreted along with model agreement maps (right panels), providing a measure of uncertainty among projections. Photo credit: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES11-00345.1