{"id":6640,"date":"2013-07-04T06:52:50","date_gmt":"2013-07-04T06:52:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/?p=6640"},"modified":"2013-07-04T06:52:50","modified_gmt":"2013-07-04T06:52:50","slug":"reconstructing-the-events-at-kedarnath-using-data-images-and-eye-witness-reports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2013\/07\/04\/reconstructing-the-events-at-kedarnath-using-data-images-and-eye-witness-reports\/","title":{"rendered":"Reconstructing the events at Kedarnath using data, images and eye-witness reports"},"content":{"rendered":"

The satellite images of Kedarnath<\/a> give us a good idea of what caused the disaster almost three weeks ag<\/a>o.\u00a0 Given the amount of eye-witness reports, it is possible to come up with a chronology of events:<\/p>\n

The disaster was triggered by very intense monsoon rainfall in the period 15th to 17th June.\u00a0 Unfortunately there is no rain gauge data for this area, and rainfall patterns are notoriously variable in high mountain areas, but an automatic weather station operated by the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology<\/a> near to the Chorabari glacier recorded 315 mm on 15th and 16th June.\u00a0 This level of rainfall is not unprecedented, but usually occurs at the peak of the monsoon in July or August.\u00a0 The important factor here is that the rainfall fell at a time when there was still snow on the ground – and any high mountain landslide expert will tell you that the combination of heavy rainfall on melting snow is the tailor-made for landslides.<\/p>\n

The effect of the heavy rainfall and rapid snow melt was to generate huge amounts of water in the landscape.\u00a0 The media images of the area clearly show the impacts, with multiple shallow failures on steep slopes.\u00a0 This image, from the Indian Express<\/a>, shows just a few of these landslides on the slopes adjacent to the town:<\/p>\n

\"13_07<\/a>

http:\/\/www.indianexpress.com\/picture-gallery\/uttarakhand-floods-leave-trail-of-death-and-destruction-\/2958-2.html<\/p><\/div>\n

The landslides shown in the image above were not a major problem,but combined with the large volumes of water in the rivers, were causing problems downstream of Kedarnath, especially at the village of Rambara.\u00a0 A pilgrim,\u00a0Ghanshyam Sharm, trekking down from Kedarnath by mule<\/a> reported that the village was already becoming washed out by the afternoon of 16th June.\u00a0 In Kedarnath, hostels has started to collapse, probably as a result of erosion of the edges of the terrace on which the town was built.\u00a0 However, upstream above the eastern snout of the Charobari glacier a larger slope failure developed.\u00a0 This is shown clearly in the satellite image that I included in my earlier post<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"13_06<\/a><\/p>\n

An initially reasonably small failure quickly accumulated sediment and water, turning into a highly energetic debris flow that swept\u00a0 to the foot of the slope, and then ran along the margin of the glacier before sweeping into the town.\u00a0 Eye-witness reports suggest that this was probably at about 6:15 pm on 16th June.\u00a0 This is the account of Constable Kuldeep Singh Mehra of the Uttarakhand Armed Police<\/a>:<\/p>\n

At around 7pm, with the temple walls echoing with wails, prayers, and shrieks, large boulders began rolling into the town, slamming against the shrine.\u00a0 \u201cMy stomach turned with every thud,\u201d says Mehra. \u201cWe all thought, this is it, there is an earthquake, and it will kill us all.\u201d No one inside the temple slept that night. Mehra tried to peep outside, but could see nothing. He only heard the ominous sounds of gushing water, and every once in a while, earth-shattering claps that made the whole temple shake.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The debris flow swept down the Mandakini river to strike Rambara.\u00a0 Before the disaster the town reportedly consisted of about 100 shops and five hotels, although the image below suggests rather fewer<\/a>.\u00a0 Whatever the total, all of them were destroyed.<\/p>\n

\"13_07<\/a>

https:\/\/picasaweb.google.com\/lh\/photo\/v7ZF2AEgeR2yhMpH4nSFtg<\/p><\/div>\n

Accounts from Rambara<\/a> suggest that the debris flow struck the town soon after it impacted Kedarnath, also at about 6:15, suggesting both very high velocities and of course that it was the same event.\u00a0 The account of Ghanshyam Sharm<\/a> is very harrowing:<\/p>\n

People were scrambling up the mountainside in desperation as the water rose in volume and ferocity.\u201cThen, I saw a little boy, 6-7 years old, who was trying to climb the mountain holding his mother\u2019s hand slip and go sliding into the river,\u201d said Ghanshyam. \u201cThe mother looked back and then fell herself.\u201d\u00a0 Ghanshyam helped his wife up a few feet on the mountainside, the path below them fast dissolving. Both of them held on to little cracks in the rock, and wedged their feet where they could. A few feet above, trees offered more protection but neither had the energy to reach them. \u201cEverywhere, people screamed \u2018help me, save me,\u2019\u201d said Ghanshyam. \u201cBut no one could have helped anyone here. If anyone reached out to grab someone else, they would both fall to their death. People were falling off like pebbles.\u201d Encouraged by the sight of those who managed to reach the trees, Ghanshyam and his wife hauled themselves up to the base of one. \u201cWe have no idea how. God helped.\u201d They straddled a tree each\u2014face down towards the slope, arms and legs entwined around the trunk, as the rain fell without a break, and rivulets of water ran down the slopes. \u201cWe were next to each other,\u201d said Ghanshyam. \u201cWe were not going to move from there.\u201d All night they saw people trying to make their way up or trying to find trails. All night they saw more people, the young and the old, slip to certain death, as the earth shook. \u201cAfter a while, I just kept my eyes on my wife and stopped seeing anything else,\u201d said Ghanshyam. \u201cWe did not expect to see the morning.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Upstream at the western snout of the Charobari Glacier an even greater problem was developing.\u00a0 Retreat of the glacier in the last two centuries had left a rampart of moraine that impounded a seasonal lake, called Charobari Tal.\u00a0 This is an image of the lake before the disaster<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"http:\/\/kedarnath-dham.blogspot.co.uk\/2011\/12\/gandhi-sarovar-kedarnath.html\"<\/a>

http:\/\/kedarnath-dham.blogspot.co.uk\/2011\/12\/gandhi-sarovar-kedarnath.html<\/p><\/div>\n

The combination of rainfall and snowmelt caused the lake to over top the moraine barrier, which failed catastrophically, releasing all of the impounded water.\u00a0 Three debris flows, consisting of a combination of water and glacial sediment that included large boulders, swept down the slopes below the glacier, picking up debris and water en route.\u00a0 The tracks of these flows are shown on the satellite image from my earlier post<\/a>, where 1 is the location of the lake, 2 the breach and 5 the location of the town:<\/p>\n

\"13_06<\/a><\/p>\n

This very energetic and large debris flow swept into Kedarnath in the morning of 17th June, causing terrible devastation.\u00a0\u00a0Constable Mehra’s account<\/a> is as follows:<\/p>\n

\n
On the morning of 17 June, at first light, Mehra walked out of the temple and met a scene he could barely comprehend. Boulders, rocks, sand and gravel had piled up high around the complex. Buildings had collapsed or were about to. People were everywhere, dazed, aimlessly walking.\u00a0 \u201cThen I heard a piercing sound, like a storm hurtling towards us,\u201d said Mehra. He ran back to the temple.\u201cI screamed\u2014run, run, run, get inside\u2014and just as I entered the mandir<\/i>, a huge wave threw me inside,\u201d he says. \u201cI was lifted so high that I was near the ceiling, and I grabbed the electric cables and held on.\u201d He looked down to see heads bobbing up and down in the water, mouths twisted in screams, hands desperately reaching out for suspended bells, wires, anything. The water burst through a side door and carried away some pilgrims. Sand poured in, collecting 4-5ft deep.\u201cEverything was over in seconds,\u201d said Mehra.\u00a0 He jumped down into the sand and ran out. Outside, lodges and shops had been carried away, like they were toys. The buildings that stood were packed with sand and gravel to the ceiling.\u201cI knew immediately that no one could have survived,\u201d said Mehra …\u201cEverywhere we looked there were dead bodies,\u201d said Mehra. \u201cLifeless hands and legs stuck out of the sand-packed windows and doors. One had red bangles on it, the kind you wear when you are newly married.\u201d<\/div>\n
The survivors began to gather. The Mandakini raged all around them, creating three channels that coursed through the temple town. They were on an island. The survivors collected wreckage, hauled tree trunks washed down by the river to try and make bridges. None held. Night came, and around a thousand people made their way inside the only lodge that wasn\u2019t full of sand.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A combination of satellite images and eye witness reports provides a very good understanding of the events at Kedarnath on 15th-17th June<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6640\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}