{"id":36975,"date":"2021-03-11T08:47:23","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T08:47:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/?p=36975"},"modified":"2021-03-11T08:47:23","modified_gmt":"2021-03-11T08:47:23","slug":"tavernola-landslide-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2021\/03\/11\/tavernola-landslide-1\/","title":{"rendered":"The Tavernola landslide: a potential tsunami-inducing failure causing concern in Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Tavernola landslide: a potential tsunami-inducing failure causing concern in Italy<\/h4>\n

This morning, loyal reader St\u00e9phane Baize (@Stef_EQ_Geology<\/a>) tweeted an Italian newspaper article about the Tavernola landslide<\/a> on the banks of Lago d’Iseo in northern Italy.\u00a0 In recent days a large section of mountain has started to move at a significant rate, driving fears of a major slope collapse.\u00a0 The estimated volume of the resultant landslide ranges from 440,000\u00a0 to 2.1 million m\u00b3.\u00a0 The slope is steep, suggesting that the mass could accelerate rapidly.\u00a0 Modelling indicates that in the worst case scenario the resultant tsunami could be large – wave heights of 9 metres above the current lake level are possible.\u00a0 The banks of the lake are densely populated, the list of settlements at risk includes Tavernola, Montisola, Marone, Sulzano, Iseo, Sale Marasino, Castro and Paratico.<\/p>\n

The wave would hit Montisola within 30 seconds of the landslide entering the water.\u00a0 Tavernola would be struck a minute later.<\/p>\n

The newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo has an image of the site of the unstable slope<\/a>:-<\/p>\n

\"The

A panoramic view of the site of the Tavernola landslide in Italy. Image from L’Eco di Bergamo \/ San Marco<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n

.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Tutto Notizie has an image indicating the approximate location of the unstable mass<\/a>:-<\/p>\n

\"The

The approximate boundaries of the Tavernola landslide. Image from Tutto Notizie<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n

.<\/p>\n

The outcome of this event will depend on a range of complex parameters, most of which are difficult to predict.\u00a0 Failure of the Tavernola landslide is not inevitable, and indeed there are signs that the landslide has slowed in recent hours.\u00a0 Those who followed the trials and tribulations of the Mannen landslide in Norway<\/a> will understand how difficult it is to predict failure.<\/p>\n

Second, the volume of rock that could fail is hard to estimate.\u00a0 This will be determined by the dynamics of the slide, the structure of the rock mass and the ability of the landslide to entrain material downslope.<\/p>\n

Third, the failure sequence will be key.\u00a0 Will the Tavernola Landslide fail as a single block, or will there be multiple events?\u00a0 The resultant tsunami is very dependent on this component, but again it is difficult to predict.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, the authorities have little choice but to manage the risk and to monitor the slope, hoping that the movement will stop.\u00a0 This will then provide time for a solution to be found.<\/p>\n

Of course I am bound to note that this landslide is occurring on a slope that has been extensively quarried, and thus is likely to be a manmade event, at least in part.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Tavernola landslide: in Italy there is concern that failure of a large rock slope could generate a substantial tsunami in Lago d’Iseo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":36978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[144,469,36,299,205,128],"class_list":["post-36975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-landslide-report","tag-europe","tag-featured","tag-italy","tag-mine","tag-mining","tag-tsunami"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36975\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}