On Twitter, Zhenhong Li from Newcastle University<\/a> yesterday tweeted about a further landslide at Heifangtai on 5th October 2019<\/a>.\u00a0 This slide was about 20,000 m\u00b3, travelling over a distance of about 100 metres.\u00a0 But what is particularly interesting about this event is that it was successfully forecast based upon the monitoring of movement.<\/p>\n Sohu News has an article about the event (in Mandarin)<\/a>, which indicates that the landslide occurred at 4:24 am local time.\u00a0 The monitoring data, collected by a team from Chang’an University and Chengdu University of Technology<\/span> headed by Professor Zhang Qin,<\/span> showed the hyperbolic increase in displacement rate with time that is characteristic of brittle failures, allowing a yellow alert to be issued 30 days before failure, and a red alert seven hours before the collapse.\u00a0 Zenghong Li tweeted this image of the displacement rate against time<\/a>:-<\/p>\n Data from the 5th October 2019 loess landslide at the Heifangtai terrace in Gansu, China. Graph tweeted by Professor Zhenghong Li of Newcastle University<\/a>, data collected by Professor Zhang Qin of Chang’an University.<\/p><\/div>\n .<\/p>\n The Haifangtai landslide appears to show classic three phase creep behaviour, with an initial period of rapid movement (often termed primary creep), a long period of near constant movement (secondary creep), but note that in reality the movement pattern is changing during this phase), followed by a rapid acceleration to failure (tertiary creep).\u00a0 It is this style of behaviour that allows forecasting of the collapse event in some cases.<\/p>\n Interestingly the final collapse was captured on two videos from cameras mounted near to the headscarp.\u00a0 These can be seen in tweets from Professor Li here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" On 5 October 2019, a 20,000 cubic metre landslide on the Heifangtei terrace in Gansu, China was successfully forecast based upon the monitoring of movement.\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":32388,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[16,881,469,232,39,287],"class_list":["post-32383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-china","tag-east-asia","tag-featured","tag-loess","tag-monitoring","tag-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32383\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Heifangtai](\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2019\/10\/19_10-Gansu-1-e1570427939136.jpg\")