{"id":31848,"date":"2019-08-06T06:21:50","date_gmt":"2019-08-06T06:21:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/?p=31848"},"modified":"2019-08-06T06:21:50","modified_gmt":"2019-08-06T06:21:50","slug":"july-2019-fatal-landslides","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2019\/08\/06\/july-2019-fatal-landslides\/","title":{"rendered":"July 2019: a record-breaking landslide month for fatal landslides"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>July 2019: a record-breaking month for fatal landslides<\/h4>\n<p>Yesterday, the <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/surface-air-temperature-july-2019\">European Union\u2019s Copernicus Climate Change Service announced<\/a> that July 2019 was the warmest month on record, continuing the long period of unsustainable global heating to which we are subjecting our planet.\u00a0 The statistics are stark &#8211; last month was 1.01 C warmer than the average July temperature between 1981 and 2010. The previous record was set in July 2016.\u00a0 The odds are strongly in favour of the new record being broken within the next few years.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, last month I also recorded the highest monthly number of fatal landslides.\u00a0 Regular readers will know that <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2012\/08\/16\/global-patterns-of-loss-of-life-from-landslides-my-new-paper-in-the-journal-geology\/\">I have been collating this data since September 2002<\/a>, a dataset that is now approaching 17 years in duration.\u00a0 This has formed the basis of a number of papers over the years (e.g. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.egu.eu\/news\/424\/landslides-triggered-by-human-activity-on-the-rise\/\">Petley 2012<\/a>), most recently with my post-doctoral researcher Dr Melanie Froude (<a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2018\/08\/24\/global-fatal-landslide-occurrence-1\/\">Froude and Petley 2018<\/a>).\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2019\/06\/18\/global-fatal-landslide-database-1\/\">The data for the period 2004-2017 can be mapped using our online tool<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In 2019 I recorded a total of exactly 100 fatal landslides, breaking the previous record by a considerable margin.\u00a0 These landslides killed 358 people.\u00a0 By comparison, in 2018 I recorded just 51 fatal landslides, causing 148 fatalities.\u00a0 The graph below shows the cumulative total of fatal landslides, and the resulting deaths, for the year to date (correct as to 5th August 2019), but note that this data has not been subjected to the validation process that will allow it to be included in the main dataset as yet):-<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_31852\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31852\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31852\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2019\/08\/19_08-July-2019-e1565070881299.jpg\" alt=\"Fatal landslides in July 2019\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-31852\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The cumulative graph for fatal landslides, and the resulting fatalities, in 2019 to date.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>The black line is the number of landslides that I have recorded worldwide that have led to the loss of at least one life, whilst the grey line is the cumulative total of the number of resulting fatalities.\u00a0 The dashed lines indicate the start and end of July.\u00a0 The rapid acceleration in the number of fatal landslides at the start of the month is clear.\u00a0 This reflects the onset of the South Asian monsoon and is the normal pattern.\u00a0 However, the number of landslides recorded in unprecedented.\u00a0 In this period, there have been many landslides in South Asia (most notably Nepal, India and Bangladesh), but I have also recorded events in, for example, UK, Norway, USA, Myanmar, Tajikistan, Thailand, Guinea, Switzerland, Brazil, China and elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>At this stage it is not clear as to the cause of this surprising number of fatal landslides.\u00a0 It has long been suggested that <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2014RG000464\">increased global temperatures will lead to higher rainfall intensities<\/a> (put simply, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture), and there is <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/increases-in-rainfall-extremes-linked-to-global-warming-11933\">strong evidence that this is occurring<\/a>.\u00a0 Most of the landslides in July 2019 were triggered by short duration, high intensity rainstorms.\u00a0 Whilst a single month does not prove the link by any means, July 2019 serves to illustrate once again the challenges that we will face in the future.<\/p>\n<h4>References<\/h4>\n<p>Froude, M. J. and Petley, D. N. 2018. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net\/18\/2161\/2018\/\">Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016<\/a>. <em>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences<\/em>, <strong>18<\/strong>, 2161-2181, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net\/18\/2161\/2018\/\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/nhess-18-2161-2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Petley, D.N. 2012. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.egu.eu\/news\/424\/landslides-triggered-by-human-activity-on-the-rise\/\">Global patterns of loss of life from landslides<\/a><em>. Geology<\/em> <strong>40 <\/strong>(10), 927-930.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In July 2019 I recorded the highest monthly number of fatal landslides since I started to collect the data in 2012. In total, I recorded 100 fatal landslides<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":31852,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[542],"tags":[45,25907,74,469,25902],"class_list":["post-31848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-database-2","tag-database","tag-fatal-landsldies","tag-fatalities","tag-featured","tag-global-heating"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31848"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31848\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}