{"id":2326,"date":"2010-11-13T06:12:04","date_gmt":"2010-11-13T11:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/?p=2326"},"modified":"2010-11-13T06:15:00","modified_gmt":"2010-11-13T11:15:00","slug":"natural-hazards-and-unnatural-disasters-the-economics-of-effective-prevention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/2010\/11\/13\/natural-hazards-and-unnatural-disasters-the-economics-of-effective-prevention\/","title":{"rendered":"Natural Hazards and UnNatural Disasters &#8211; the Economics of Effective Prevention"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0026-corrected.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2330\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0026-corrected-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0026-corrected-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0026-corrected-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0026-corrected.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This week a joint publication was released by the United Nations and the World Bank with the above title.\u00a0 The aim of the report, which can be downloaded for free from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gfdrr.org\/gfdrr\/nhud-home\">here<\/a>, was to exemine the efficacy of investment in disaster risk reduction.\u00a0 Although long, it is an excellent piece of work that is inevitably destined to be influential in this area.\u00a0 As usual with reports associated with the World Bank, which tend to follow a particular economic model for development in less developed countries that has proven to be less than effective in many locations in my view, there are aspects with which I disagree.\u00a0 However, the key points are generally worthy and thought-provoking. As an aside it has been interesting, and slightly depressing to see how little traction this report has gained in the mainstream media.\u00a0 Given the high profile disasters of the last few years this is disappointing.<\/p>\n<p>For me the most important aspect of this report is the justification that it provides for investment in disaster risk reduction.\u00a0 Superficially, one might think that this is an obvious course of action, but an alternative argument can be, and sometimes is, articulated.\u00a0 The table below compares the number of people killed per annum by various issues around the world:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Natural Disasters : 80,000 (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.emdat.be\/\">EM-DAT<\/a> based on 2005-2009)<\/li>\n<li>HIV-AIDS: 2 million (<a href=\"http:\/\/unaidstoday.org\/?page_id=5\">UN<\/a> based on 2008)<\/li>\n<li>Malaria: 880,000 (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.who.int\/en\/\">WHO<\/a> based on 2006)<\/li>\n<li>Water quality: 2.2 to 5 million (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pacinst.org\/reports\/water_related_deaths\/water_related_deaths_report.pdf\">Gleick 2002<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Maternal deaths in childbirth: 358,000 (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.unicef.org\/esaro\/5440_drop_in_maternal_deaths.html\">UNICEF<\/a> based on 2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In this context, the argument is that the (scandalously) limited sums available for\u00a0 investment in development aid are better targetted at these other issues, and that disaster risk reduction can follow on in due course.\u00a0 Of course, that is completely incorrect, and this report cogently explains why.\u00a0 The key reasons are as follows:<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Investment in disaster risk reduction saves money in the long term<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The report points out that disaster risk reduction is cost-effective because it is generally much cheaper to mitigate hazards than it is to deal with their aftermath.\u00a0 Whilst this is neither new nor surprising, the report contains a fascinating graph that demonstrates that disaster relief accounts for about one fifth of the humanitarian budget on an annual basis:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/10_11-humanitarian-assistance1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2328\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/10_11-humanitarian-assistance1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"452\" height=\"235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/10_11-humanitarian-assistance1.jpg 785w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/10_11-humanitarian-assistance1-300x155.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 452px) 100vw, 452px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<p><strong>2. Disaster risk reduction does not need to be expensive<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In many cases investment in disaster risk reduction does not need to compete with other demands on resources simply because the costs are often low and can be widely distributed.\u00a0 Thus, for example, the cost of building in seismic-resistant design elements to building under construction are low in comparison with the overall expense, and can ensure not only safety of the occupants but also of the investment in the building.<\/p>\n<p>The report makes the point that the costs of disasters are likely to rise dramatically for two reasons.\u00a0 The first is climate change.\u00a0 I know that this will promote howls of protest from the &#8220;sceptic&#8221; community, but the geohazard \/ geophysical and disaster reduction communities, who work on these issue on a daily basis, are like me in no doubt, and speak from a well-informed position, so I do not intend to discuss this further here.\u00a0 Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of the most damaging storm events, with congruent increases in resulting losses.\u00a0 Secondly, the growth of cities vulnerable to major natural hazards is alarming &#8211; by 2050 it is expected that 1.5 billion people will live in cities vulnerable to earthquakes and tropical cyclones.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0067-corrected.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2331\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0067-corrected-1024x835.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"407\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0067-corrected-1024x835.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0067-corrected-300x244.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT0067-corrected.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>So, the report has four main findings:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Disasters expose the cumulative implications of many earlier decisions.\u00a0 The report advocates a deeper investigation in the aftermath of disasters into why particular decisions were taken.\u00a0 The idea here is not recrimination but lesson learning.<\/li>\n<li>Prevention is possible and often cost-effective, as described above.<\/li>\n<li>Many measures &#8211; both public and private &#8211; must work together for effective prevention.\u00a0 The use of prevention is a little odd here, but the theme is actually mitigation and preparation, the point being that a lack of joined up thinking can result in unintended consequences.\u00a0 This in part explains the prevalence of disasters in less developed countries.\u00a0 Weak and immature governments rarely make good, coherent decisions, with terrible consequences;<\/li>\n<li>The exposure to hazards will rise in cities, but greater exposure need not increase vulnerability.\u00a0 The point here is that the growth of vulnerable cities appears inevitable, but that appropriate planning and mitigation can prevent a consequent increase in disasters.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT3101-corrected.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2332\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT3101-corrected-1024x724.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT3101-corrected-1024x724.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT3101-corrected-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT3101-corrected.jpg 1525w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Thus, the report makes five recommendations for policy:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Governments can and should make information more easily available.\u00a0 I agree with this wholeheartedly, but would want to emphasise that in many cases the issue is not data availability but rather the capacity of potentially-affected people to use the information in an effective way.\u00a0 This issue, which occurs in every society, needs further thought;<\/li>\n<li>Governments should permit land and housing markets to work, supplementing them with targeted interventions when appropriate.\u00a0 This sounds worryingly like the World Bank&#8217;s dogma on the joy of free markets and is, I think, rather unconvincing in all but a few cases.\u00a0 I am not arguing against free markets, but rather that their benefits are somewhat overstated;<\/li>\n<li>Governments must provide adequate infrastructure and other public services.\u00a0 The report makes the point that often investment in public infrastructure is essentially irrational due to political considerations.\u00a0 Interestingly, the report points out that investment in rural roads is particularly problematic &#8211; this is a hobby-horse that I frequently ride.<\/li>\n<li>Good institutions must develop to permit public oversight.\u00a0 They use the example of deforestation in Haiti &#8211; the subject of a post a couple of days ago &#8211; to point out the need for good institutional structures.<\/li>\n<li>Donors have a role in prevention.\u00a0 The report notes that spending on prevention is less than one per cent of the total aid budget, but as noted above response to disasters consumes about a fifth of it.\u00a0 This suggests that much more investment is needed in prevention.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT2244-corrected.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-2333\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT2244-corrected-300x222.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"222\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT2244-corrected-300x222.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT2244-corrected-1024x761.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2010\/11\/PICT2244-corrected.jpg 1811w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A report has just been released by the World Bank and the United Nations on the ecoonomics of disaster risk reduction.  This post briefly reflects upon the key findings of this influential document.<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[499,498,160,327,500],"class_list":["post-2326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-disaster-risk-reduction","tag-humanitarian","tag-new-report","tag-united-nations","tag-world-bank"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2326"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2326\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}