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<\/a>1. Hurricane Tomas<\/strong><\/p>\nAs feared, Hurricane Tomas is now bringing heavy rainfall to Haiti.\u00a0 The path of the storm has been somewhat erratic, as the Tropical Storm Risk <\/a>track map shows.\u00a0 However, the storm is now tracking in\u00a0 a generally north-northwesterly direction, and is likely to pass just to the west of Haiti, if the latest forecasts are correct.<\/p>\n NOAA\u00a0have provided two very useful images at this stage.\u00a0 The first is a map <\/a>showing in detail the forecast track of the storm, with the areas most\u00a0at risk highlighted.<\/p>\n The second is a map of rainfall potential over the next 24 hours, unfortunately in inches (1 inch = 25.4 mm):<\/p>\n This suggests that Port-au-Prince may avoid the worst of the storm, but that much of the earthquake-affected area can expect 100 to 200 mm of rainfall over the next 24 hours.\u00a0 This is a very significant amount, resulting in a high level of hazard.\u00a0 Of course there are many uncertainties in the equation here, and so no particular outcome across the spectrum of realistic possibilities\u00a0can be considered to be likely at this stage, and no-one should assume that Port-au-Prince will escape the worst of the storm.\u00a0\u00a0 The Wall Street Journal has a good article <\/a>on the challenges of preparing for the storm.\u00a0 The next 24 hours will be very interesting.<\/p>\n 2. Mount Merapi<\/strong><\/p>\n The eruption at Mount Merapi has intensified very significantly over the last 24 hours, resulting in pyroclastic flows travelling over 15 km from the volcano.\u00a0 Some dramatic footage has been collected of much smaller pyroclastic flows travelling down the flanks of Merapi from an earlier eruption:<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n