![\"Landslide](\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2015\/05\/15_05-Monsoon-5-e1432107389409.jpg\")
<\/a>IMD<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n .<\/p>\n Based upon the timings on this map the rains might be expected to reach the eastern part of Nepal on about 5th June, and to have covered the entire county by about 20th June.\u00a0 These are average figures of course, so there may be considerable variability.\u00a0 But of course the arrival of the monsoon front is not necessarily the start of the landslide season.\u00a0 Landslides can be triggered by pre-monsoon rainfall (especially convective events), and the heavy monsoon rainfall may not be associated with the arrival of the monsoon front.\u00a0 So I have been looking at my Nepal landslide database.\u00a0 In the graph below I have plotted by year for the period from 2004 to 2014 inclusive the cumulative number of fatal landslides in Nepal:-<\/p>\n Cumulative number of fatal landslides in Nepal (author’s data)<\/p><\/div>\n .<\/p>\n Today (20th May) is day number 140, so it is clear that the main landslide season has yet to start.\u00a0 In most years the number of fatal landslides starts to increase at around about day 160 (about 8th June), with the main focus starting from about day 180 (28th June).\u00a0 So the main threat will start in about three weeks from now, and will intensify towards the end of next month.\u00a0 The landslide season typically ends at about day 280, i.e. somewhere around early October.\u00a0 Note that there is a great deal of variation between years both in terms of timing and the number of events.<\/p>\n I have highlighted two curves – 2006 and 2009.\u00a0 These were both years that represented the start of El Nino events – a medium-sized event in 2009-10 and a weak event in 2006-7.\u00a0 Interestingly both years saw a later than average start to the landslide season.\u00a0 We are currently in weak El Nino conditions<\/a>.\u00a0 I am unsure as to whether this is significant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Using my fatal landslide database for Nepal, I’ve looked at the timing of the landslide season in recent years. The main landslide season starts in late June and runs to early October.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":15129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[537],"tags":[23,469,979,66,72],"class_list":["post-15127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earthquake-induced-landslide","tag-earthquake","tag-featured","tag-monsoon","tag-nepal","tag-south-asia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"landslide](\"https:\/\/blogs.agu.org\/landslideblog\/files\/2015\/05\/15_05-Nepal-graph-e1432109494994.jpg\")
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