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15 October 2015

NOAA Issues Long Range Winter Outlook

Long range forecasts tend to often turn out badly, but with the very strong El Nino this year there is higher confidence than usual. That said, take this with a grain of salt! I’ll be posting more about this in coming days (and sharing some opinions from others as well). One note here, and that’s how to interpret the maps below. It’s better to look at it in Yoda fashion, …

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16 October 2014

The Winter Forecast Is Out, and It’s Probably Wrong!

  NOAA Released the 2014/2015 winter forecast today and it is probably wrong. I’m not taking a slam at NOAA here, they will also admit to you that the odds are that this forecast will not be correct. The truth is, that any forecast beyond 5-7 days has very low skill. That said, we cannot learn to make long-range forecasts unless we try, and that’s how science works: we make …

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