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30 November 2016

The Warm November May Be Setting Us Up For a Cold Winter

The Arctic Sea ice continues to run at record lows, and this has potentially large implications on the winter ahead. Instead of white ice reflecting what little sunlight is available north of 60 degrees, we have ocean water rapidly losing its heat into the atmosphere of the High Arctic. The ice that’s usually there now acts as an insulator to hold in the heat, but not this year! How all …


15 November 2016

Winter is Coming. It May be a Memorable One.

This is a guest post from my weather intern Andrew McCormick (Senior at Salisbury University here in Maryland). We’ve been looking at what the winter may bring for a month or so now, and Andrew has a good track record of past winter forecasts. This is a good summary of the techniques we use to make long range forecasts, and in case you’re wondering, I see nothing to disagree with …


2 December 2015

The Coming Winter Part Two: The Elephant in the Room

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Ask me what the Northern Hemisphere winter will be like, and I can easily tell you. As a matter of fact, It’s a slam dunk!  It will be WAY above normal. I’ll say the same for the whole planet for December through January. As a matter of fact, rising greenhouse gases in our atmosphere make it quite likely that the U.S. will see an above average …