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1 October 2016

Hurricane Matthew Becomes First Cat 5 in Atlantic Basin in 9 years

There is big trouble brewing for Jamaica, and Cuba. Then the Bahamas. Matthew reached Cat 5 status tonight with winds of 160 mph near the center. A Hurricane Watch is now posted for Jamaica and while the guidance is still uncertain beyond 96 hours, a right turn with a hit on Jamaica is very likely. The depth of the unusually warm water near the storm, and the lack of shear, …


11 August 2015

The Real Reason U.S. Weather Models Missed The Forecast on Hurricane Sandy

Among my fellow meteorologists, the talk after Hurricane Sandy was how accurate the european ECMWF model was compared to the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) model. Fortunately, most of us who were forecasting Sandy, knew that the euro was the better choice from previous experience, but it turns out that the reason we thought it did a better job was wrong. We thought it was because the Euro models initialization of the atmosphere …


30 October 2013

Sandy A Year Later- A Lot of Lessons Learned and Knowledge Gained

My friend Bob Henson at the National Center for Atmospheric Research has a great piece on Atmos News about Sandy today. NCAR has published some amazing high-resolution model runs of Sandy, and in some ways Sandy actually behaved like a tornadic super-cell. The model runs show that as Sandy approached a cold front, it tilted tubes of rotation air from the horizontal to the vertical. This same thing happens in …


1 November 2012

Hurricane Sandy in Perspective, part 2

I was going to photoshop my own image comparing hurricane Sandy to the great red spot, but this will do nicely:


30 October 2012

Hurricane Sandy’s Rainfall in Perspective

With all the breathless reporting about how hurricane Sandy (a.k.a. Frankenstorm) is such a massive weather event, I was curious what the quantity of rainfall from Sandy looks like in comparison to, say, the amount of water in the martian atmosphere.