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You are browsing the archive for hurricane forecasts Archives - AGU Blogosphere.

1 September 2016

Look at The Cone- NOT the line Inside It

Hurricane Warnings are now posted for Florida, and concern is growing that a tropical storm will be moving up the East Coast beaches on Labor Day Weekend. I’ve been looking at different model runs tonight and there is actually a growing spread instead of agreement. NOAA runs a 12km model called the NAM (WRF core for geeks reading this) but they also run the model at a lower resolution a …

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2 December 2013

I Stand Behind What I Said In September About Hurricane Forecasts

This from NOAA this week. The 2013 hurricane season ended at midnight Saturday night, and in spite of the forecasts for an active season, it was just the opposite. Nov. 25, 2013 NOAA Press Release The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Saturday, Nov. 30, had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, thanks in large part to persistent, unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean …

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9 September 2013

Are Hurricane Season Forecasts Ready For Prime Time??

Weather and climate forecasts have value because decisions and plans can be made that save money, and (more importantly) lives. This is why so much research is underway into making an accurate prediction of what the rate of sea level rise will be in the coming decades, and how precipitation patterns will change as the planet gets warmer (from increasing greenhouse gases). Shorter predictions for a few months ahead can …

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