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7 November 2014

El Nino Threat Diminishing?? Modoki El Nino Coming?

NOAA released an update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation this week, and the odds of an El Nino are down to 58%. One of the main reasons for this is that the atmosphere has not responded to the rather weak warming in the Eastern Pacific. El Nino is not just an ocean warming, it is an ocean atmosphere interaction and so far the atmosphere has just not picked up …


16 October 2014

The Winter Forecast Is Out, and It’s Probably Wrong!

  NOAA Released the 2014/2015 winter forecast today and it is probably wrong. I’m not taking a slam at NOAA here, they will also admit to you that the odds are that this forecast will not be correct. The truth is, that any forecast beyond 5-7 days has very low skill. That said, we cannot learn to make long-range forecasts unless we try, and that’s how science works: we make …


11 August 2014

Snow,Cold, and Drought: The Coming Winter Might Be Brutal

I’ve spent the weekend looking at how the coming winter may turn out, and before I go any farther, let me say that long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. Let me repeat that: long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. That said, there are some fascinating indications that the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. may be in for a cold and wet/icy winter, while the drought in …


17 July 2014

El Nino May Take The Stage, but His Opening Act is Not Rocking The House

Just looking at the latest on El Nino from the CPC, and I must say I’m not yet impressed. Most of the atmosphere/ocean coupled models are still forecasting an El Nino to develop, but temps in the Pacific have cooled some in the past two weeks. Perhaps more importantly, the atmosphere has not started to respond, with greater than normal rainfall continuing in the West Pacific. In an El Nino, …


30 June 2014

Yes, El Nino Is Coming But It’s Probably Not What You Think

  An El Nino is probably on the way for this autumn and winter, but despite what you may have heard about floods and fires, it’s not looking (right now) as if it will be a strong one. The strength of the El Nino IS a big deal however, because weak to moderate El Nino episodes tend to have different and milder impacts on worldwide weather, than the super strong ones …