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26 May 2015

An El Nino connection to the floods in Oklahoma and Texas?

There were more flash floods across the Hill Country of Texas into the eastern part of the state as well on Monday, and a Flash Flood Emergency was declared in the Austin area. Now, look at the sea surface temperature anomalies for the globe right now, with the signs of a developing El Nino (the warm water off south America stretching westward along the Equator), and also note the warm …


14 May 2015

NASA: Warmest Jan.-April on Record. 2015 May be New Hottest Year On Record

The previous 12 month period was also the hottest on record and this breaks that record which was set just last month. With the daily increasing signs that a significant El Nino is brewing, we seem to be on track for another warmest year on record as well. El Nino’s really heat the atmosphere, and they tend to be among the warmer years almost always. Add in the rising greenhouse …


4 May 2015

Tropical Cyclone Brewing In the Atlantic??

A tropical cyclone in early May is VERY rare in the Atlantic. Hurricane season does not start until June first, but there’s only about a 50% chance (on average) of seeing a June storm in the Atlantic Basin. That said, there are indications of a possible tropical cyclone developing east of Cuba in the next 36 hours, with several different numerical models indicating development. Some of the model guidance brings …


6 December 2014

What You Missed In Science This Week

Unfalsifiable Belief- The Dark Side of Reason This piece on a recently published paper (in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2014. DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000018) is a must read. Click the image to read it. Could this explain the faulty reasoning of those who refuse to accept the truth that greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere, and those white lines behind jet aircraft are not government mind control chemicals? What do …


26 November 2014

El Nino Modoki Style

I just finished a rather detailed piece for my station’s website about El Nino and long range forecasting. If you really want to understand what an El Nino is, and how it can help make a long range forecast, then it’s worth a read. Click the image below to read it. I warn you that it is long form, and there are 4 videos embedded that you really should watch. …


7 November 2014

El Nino Threat Diminishing?? Modoki El Nino Coming?

NOAA released an update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation this week, and the odds of an El Nino are down to 58%. One of the main reasons for this is that the atmosphere has not responded to the rather weak warming in the Eastern Pacific. El Nino is not just an ocean warming, it is an ocean atmosphere interaction and so far the atmosphere has just not picked up …


16 October 2014

The Winter Forecast Is Out, and It’s Probably Wrong!

  NOAA Released the 2014/2015 winter forecast today and it is probably wrong. I’m not taking a slam at NOAA here, they will also admit to you that the odds are that this forecast will not be correct. The truth is, that any forecast beyond 5-7 days has very low skill. That said, we cannot learn to make long-range forecasts unless we try, and that’s how science works: we make …


11 August 2014

Snow,Cold, and Drought: The Coming Winter Might Be Brutal

I’ve spent the weekend looking at how the coming winter may turn out, and before I go any farther, let me say that long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. Let me repeat that: long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. That said, there are some fascinating indications that the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. may be in for a cold and wet/icy winter, while the drought in …


17 July 2014

El Nino May Take The Stage, but His Opening Act is Not Rocking The House

Just looking at the latest on El Nino from the CPC, and I must say I’m not yet impressed. Most of the atmosphere/ocean coupled models are still forecasting an El Nino to develop, but temps in the Pacific have cooled some in the past two weeks. Perhaps more importantly, the atmosphere has not started to respond, with greater than normal rainfall continuing in the West Pacific. In an El Nino, …


30 June 2014

Yes, El Nino Is Coming But It’s Probably Not What You Think

  An El Nino is probably on the way for this autumn and winter, but despite what you may have heard about floods and fires, it’s not looking (right now) as if it will be a strong one. The strength of the El Nino IS a big deal however, because weak to moderate El Nino episodes tend to have different and milder impacts on worldwide weather, than the super strong ones …