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You are browsing the archive for El Nino Archives - AGU Blogosphere.

7 April 2020

NASA study adds a pinch of salt to El Niño models

When modeling the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean-climate cycle, adding satellite sea surface salinity — or saltiness — data significantly improves model accuracy, according to a new study. ENSO is an irregular cycle of warm and cold climate events called El Niño and La Niña. In normal years, strong easterly trade winds blow from the Americas toward southeast Asia, but in an El Niño year, those winds are reduced and sometimes even reversed. Warm water that was “piled up” in the western Pacific flows back toward the Americas, changing atmospheric pressure and moisture to produce droughts in Asia and more frequent storms and floods in the Americas. The reverse pattern is called a La Niña, in which the ocean in the eastern Pacific is cooler than normal.

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25 November 2019

Weather in Malaysia provides early forecasts for UK, study finds

“It was once said that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas, and our study provides new evidence of the remarkable interconnectedness of the world’s weather” – Robert Lee, University of Reading

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6 August 2019

How the Pacific Ocean influences long-term drought in the Southwestern U.S.

New research explores what conditions in the ocean and in the atmosphere prolong droughts in the Southwestern U.S. The answer is complex, according to a study published Aug. 6 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

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13 February 2019

Mining climate models for seasonal forecasts

A team of scientists has figured out a shortcut way to produce skillful seasonal climate forecasts with a fraction of the computing power normally needed.

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30 July 2018

A Guest Post on Another Blog That You Should Read.

Jason Furtado, a meteorologist (at my alma mater) the Uni. of Oklahoma, has a guest post on the Climate.Gov blog about the likely El Nino this winter. Every El Nino is different, but El Nino’s centered in the Pacific can have much different weather patterns across the U.S. compared to an East Pacific El Nino. Dr. Furtado explains why he thinks this one may be centered in the Pacific (good …

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12 May 2016

La Nina Watch for Fall 2016

NOAA has issued a La Nina Watch for the fall, and there are growing signs that the super El Nino of last winter will become a La Nina event for our next one. It is too early to say how strong a La Nina will develop, but the odds are around 3 out of 4 that we will see a La Nina winter. La Nina events tend to bring cooler …

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16 February 2016

January 2016 Blows Away Global Temp. Records

NASA announced today that this past January was an amazing 1.13 degrees C. above the 1950-1980 average. It becomes only the 4th month ever to reach over 1 degree C above the average, with the other 3 months being in 2015. The record is mainly due to the increasing greenhouse gases, and the strong El Nino in the Pacific. Having now reached 1 degree C above the average, we are …

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1 February 2016

Understanding the 2015–16 El Niño and its impact on phytoplankton

This is part of a new series of posts that highlight the importance of Earth and space science data and its contributions to society. Posts in this series showcase data facilities and data scientists; explain how Earth and space science data is collected, managed and used; explore what this data tells us about the planet; and delve into the challenges and issues involved in managing and using data. This series …

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1 January 2016

December 2015 Re-writes The Record Books. So Does the Entire Year.

December 2015 is in the record books and it was not just the warmest December on record for much of the Eastern Seaboard, it broke the old records by an amount that’s best described as incredible. This is what happens when you combine the strongest El Nino event on record, with the hottest year on record globally, along with the hottest oceans on record as well. Dr. Michael Mann at …

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30 December 2015

2016 Brings A Changing Weather Pattern, but El Nino and The Hot Oceans Still Rule.

The weather pattern is finally changing. We’ve seen 5-6 weeks of extreme warmth in the Eastern U.S., floods and tornadoes in the south, and in the West, cold and snow. The new year will be different, but it will still be a rather mild and wet El Nino pattern, just not as warm as it has been in Eastern North America. The polar jet will dip down closer to New …

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10 December 2015

U.S. Has Warmest Autumn on Record

Temperatures across the U.S. (at 3 PM) were over 30 degrees above average in North Dakota this afternoon. With dozens of cities reporting temperatures of 12-28 degrees above average. The map below is based on the average weather (for 3 PM on December 9th) over the last 30 years. The maps below show the temperatures over the last 30 and the last 90 days compared to normal. The NOAA Climate …

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4 December 2015

El Nino In A Can

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the simulation. …

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2 December 2015

The Coming Winter Part Two: The Elephant in the Room

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Ask me what the Northern Hemisphere winter will be like, and I can easily tell you. As a matter of fact, It’s a slam dunk!  It will be WAY above normal. I’ll say the same for the whole planet for December through January. As a matter of fact, rising greenhouse gases in our atmosphere make it quite likely that the U.S. will see an above average …

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16 November 2015

El Nino Warms Equatorial Pacific To Record Levels

The 2015 El Nino continues to be one of the strongest ever measured and the weekly temperatures this week have passed the 1997 event, which was the strongest on record. The El Nino index is based on a running average, so technically this El Nino has not passed the 97 event, but we now have a new record of warm water in the area, where El Nino is measured. The …

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6 November 2015

Satellite Detects Food Chain Impact of El Nino

El Nino is not just a warming of the surface waters in the East Pacific, the depth of that warm water increases as the thermocline lowers. This keeps nutrient rich colder waters from upwelling to the surface, impacting the very bottom of the food chain. NASA has a cool page (with much more info) where you can toggle back and forth and see the drop in chlorophyll here. How you …

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23 October 2015

Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia Heads To Mexico with Winds Near 200 MPH. Strongest East Pacific Storm On Record!

Mexico’s Pacific Coast has rarely, if ever, been hit by a Cat 5 severe hurricane, but that is exactly what will happen tomorrow between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A hurricane hunter dropsonde report showed winds reaching 179 knots or 206 mph at flight level near the eye and surface winds are now near 185 mph. This truly is a monster storm. It will produce a catastrophic storm surge where it makes …

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21 October 2015

September Global Heat Record Smashed. 2015 Will Almost Certainly Pass 2014 as Hottest on Record

September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …

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10 September 2015

Questions About El Nino Answered

The 2015 El Nino event will go down in history as one of the strongest ever, and likely as THE Strongest. While it is impossible to give an exact idea of what this will mean for your area, we can give you some likely scenarios for the upcoming winter, with more confidence in some areas than in others. There are also some misconceptions out there that I hopefully will dispel in this post! First the …

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3 September 2015

More On El Nino

NCAR released this video today comparing the 1997 super El Nino with this year’s up to early August. The sea surface temps. in the Nino 3.4 region now show that the temps. have reached the 97 level. The Nino 3.4 region is the region in the Pacific that is used to measure the strength of El Nino. From NCAR: September 3, 2015 | The El Niño brewing in the tropical …

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22 July 2015

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky

The image above shows how very strong the developing El Nino in the Pacific, is compared to the 1997 event (which is the strongest on record). Since El Nino events usually peak in the later fall/winter, it sure looks like we are in for one of the strongest ever, if not perhaps a record breaker, but look closer at those two images. They are different. Notice the very warm water …

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