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26 November 2014

El Nino Modoki Style

I just finished a rather detailed piece for my station’s website about El Nino and long range forecasting. If you really want to understand what an El Nino is, and how it can help make a long range forecast, then it’s worth a read. Click the image below to read it. I warn you that it is long form, and there are 4 videos embedded that you really should watch. …


7 November 2014

El Nino Threat Diminishing?? Modoki El Nino Coming?

NOAA released an update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation this week, and the odds of an El Nino are down to 58%. One of the main reasons for this is that the atmosphere has not responded to the rather weak warming in the Eastern Pacific. El Nino is not just an ocean warming, it is an ocean atmosphere interaction and so far the atmosphere has just not picked up …


16 October 2014

The Winter Forecast Is Out, and It’s Probably Wrong!

  NOAA Released the 2014/2015 winter forecast today and it is probably wrong. I’m not taking a slam at NOAA here, they will also admit to you that the odds are that this forecast will not be correct. The truth is, that any forecast beyond 5-7 days has very low skill. That said, we cannot learn to make long-range forecasts unless we try, and that’s how science works: we make …


11 August 2014

Snow,Cold, and Drought: The Coming Winter Might Be Brutal

I’ve spent the weekend looking at how the coming winter may turn out, and before I go any farther, let me say that long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. Let me repeat that:┬álong-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. That said, there are some fascinating indications that the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. may be in for a cold and wet/icy winter, while the drought in …