View of a Tropical Disturbance off of the South Carolina Coast from the NASA Terra satellite. Click image for larger size.

(Update: Tropical Storm Alberto has now formed per NHC)

Just looking at this image, it seems a tropical depression may be forming off the South Carolina coast. There is a circulation but that does not mean it is a “warm core” system. It is not that rare for a tropical system to form from a cold core surface low over the ocean, but to get one in the Atlantic in mid May is VERY rare.

There may end up being some similarities between this system and Hurricane Able back in 1951. Able was a very rare May hurricane that reached category 3 strength. Stay Tuned!

The Real One. Image ctsy. Climate Central

The Real One

Visualizing how a one degree increase in temperature can have such a profound effect is not easy when you first think about it, but when you see graphs like this, it begins to make more sense. The atmosphere is now holding about 4% more water vapor than it did a century ago and this must have an effect. This is also a good example of why scientists use the term climate change and not global warming.

You can see more of this data at NOAA’s National Climate Data Center where they keep track of the Climate Extremes Index.

Another related image is from the NRDC and the Rocky Mountain Climate Org. Hat tip to Joe Romm at Climate Progress for this one. Click the image to see the report the image is taken from.

The Faked One

Image from Skeptical Science that was published in the WSJ.

The Skeptical Science blog has a must read post today about a faked graph that keeps popping up as proof that climate change is a hoax. If you see this graph, your time is being wasted by someone giving you political propaganda and not science. Apparently this graph has appeared in numerous newspapers including the Wall Street Journal (Not exactly known for it’s accurate coverage of climate physics).

The Pretty One

I never get tired of looking at the true color images from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua and Terra satellites. This one is from Friday afternoon as Aqua passed up the east coast. My house is in the pic (along with a few million others!). Go here to see more.

Note the finger lakes region of New York. Click for a higher resolution version.

Pictures That Make Sense

…and after the firestorm of outrage over the Heartland Inst. comparing those who believe in peer-reviewed science to the Unabomber, this billboard:

I find it really fascinating how the iron wall around some people’s worldview can cause them to say such silly things without even having a clue to how absolutely ridiculous they look. Some amazing research about this has been done by Dr. Bob Altemeyer, and I wrote about it awhile back here.

]]> http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/05/19/some-fascinating-science-pics-of-the-week-along-with-a-faked-one/feed/ 0 http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/05/16/april-2012-makes-427th-consecutive-months-with-ocean-temps-warmer-than-20th-century-average/ http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/05/16/april-2012-makes-427th-consecutive-months-with-ocean-temps-warmer-than-20th-century-average/#comments Wed, 16 May 2012 02:37:59 +0000 Dan Satterfield http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/?p=13893  

From NOAA NCDC- April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record. Records go back 133 years.

Ocean temperatures in April were the second warmest on record and this makes April the 427th month in a row with ocean temperatures above the average of the 20th century.

Here are the exact numbers from NOAA:

From the Nat. Climate Data Center

The U.S. Climate Extremes Index was at a record high for the January April period as well:

The Climate Extremes index from NOAA NCDC.

and NOAA says for the U.S.:

• The contiguous United States mean temperature during January–April was 7.4°C (45.4°F), which is 3.0°C (5.4°F) above the long-term average and the warmest such period since national records began in 1895.

Notice how the higher latitudes are seeing the greatest departure from average temperatures. This has long been predicted as a signal of increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

Global temps. from January April 2012 were the 15th warmest on record. This in spite of the fact that a weak La Nina (colder than normal waters in the Equatorial Pacific).

This IR image of water vapor shows the Coriolis effect in action.

A great video here on the Coriolis effect by some grad students in Illinois. If you have never gotten on a playground merry-go -round and tossed or rolled a ball, you should. It’s the easiest way to see the Coriolis affect in action. Coriolis can be a concept that is a bit difficult to get your head around, but this video does a great job of explaining it.

Some interesting facts I looked up regarding water:

Virtually all of that blue blob is salt water and not drinkable. Only 2.5% of that blue marble of water s fresh and 70% of that 2.5% is frozen ice in Greenland, Antarctica, or on high mountaintops. Only .007% of Earth’s water is easily accessible for humans, a fact that I made much of when taught two semesters of Environmental Science.

Without doubt, drinking water will be the story of the next century. Want some more surprising facts- go here.

“Is it possible that a synthesis of all the world’s climate scientists is wrong about the science they spend their lives studying, and your favorite political commentators are right? Certainly it is. It’s probably not very likely, but if it does turn out to be the case, then the synthesis will evolve in the direction that pans out through experimentation and observation, and future IPCC reports will be even closer to the facts.” Brian Dunning.

Read Brian Dunning’s post on Skeptoid. He makes some excellent points and he sure knows how to write

By the way, the NCDC announced today that the last 12 months have been the hottest in the U.S. ever recorded. records go back to 1895. Jan- April 2012 was also the hottest 4 months on record in the U.S.

This is not exactly what I have in mind, but it might appeal to those who keep emailing me about chem-trails.

Russell Lewis at National Public Radio had an interesting report about wearing helmets during tornado warnings a few days ago and it caught my eye, because I’ve been telling viewers to do just that since the early 1990′s. Not only, that but I’ve also pushed the idea of making sure everyone has shoes on and a safe place to run to if the winds start to pick up. Frankly, I’m glad to see the idea is spreading!

The NPR story  is here, and they do make note of the fact that there has been little research to study whether or not wearing a helmet actually does save people from injury. However, this is one of those obvious issues where one does not need to wait. So, put on that bike, baseball, football, cricket, or whatever helmet you happen to have!

While I’m on the subject, some more free advice from someone who has lived through and tracked/nowcasted way too many twisters:

1. Skip the in ground shelter and get a safe room. Most people will wait until it is too late to get to an underground shelter, but you can sit in your safe room eating popcorn while watching TV and have a fair degree of safety!

2. Don’t let anyone convince you that a mobile home can be made as safe as a frame or brick building during a tornado. They cannot, and in spite of the fact that mobile homes make up only about 20% of housing in America, 50% of the deaths from tornadoes are in them.

3. Shoes are a smart idea, because after severe storms there are always people who need a trip to the ER to get their foot sewn up after stepping on something sharp!

4. Who cares if your local weather siren did or did not go off. Buy a NOAA weather radio. Sirens are so 1920′s.

Count me in with Ted along with every major science organisation on the planet.

I’ve no idea what the best way to deal with climate change is, but you should know there are more scientists who think the Moon landing might have been a hoax (~5%) than who think climate change is (<2.5%). This bill board is certainly a new low for the anti-science Heartland crazies, and as the folks at Climate Central put it, “Heartland jumped the shark” with this one.

I’ve written about Heartland’s anti-science activities before here and here. These folks are actively funding attempts to put political beliefs in science classrooms and in some states like TN and LA. they will probably succeed. Those students are in for a shock when (and IF) they get to a university, and it’s worth remembering that students in most other countries are already well ahead of American students in science.

The Plain Facts

For anyone reading this who thinks there is any doubt that adding carbon to the atmosphere will cause the planet to warm up, let me assure you that the science is a rock solid as it gets. Anyone who says otherwise is giving you a political opinion, not a valid scientific one. As Dr. Jim White at the Univ. of Colorado puts it, there are only 3 things that affect the Earth’s temperature:

Temperature predictions from James Hansen in 1981 have been very accurate. The Climate experts at Real Climate have a fascinating summary of it. Click the image to read it.

1. Solar output (it’s been virtually unchanged over the past century and ruled out as the cause of most of the warming)

2. Albedo (how reflective the Earth is). Also virtually unchanged, but climate change itself may have an effect.

3. The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Rising.)

EVERY major science body on Earth has said the scientific consensus is good science. The handful of atmospheric/climate researchers who disagree have not succeeded in showing why all of those papers in all of those journals are wrong, and the science world has moved on. The question of how we tackle the problem is a fair one for debate, but the scientific truth of the challenge is indisputable.

The Truth Behind The Billboard

There are a lot of questions about ho much we will warm and how much seal level will rise if we keep increasing greenhouse gases. The best science says around 3 degrees Celsius, and two to three feet is most likely. So far, the best climate models have underestimated the changes. James Hansen the NASA scientist who first brought the issue to public attention made predictions in the 1980′s that have so far been uncannily accurate.

The media gives a lot of exposure to those who think the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and all of those other science organisations are wrong. It’s done in the laudable effort to give balance, but It’s a false balance. If time was allotted in proportion to the researchers who disagree with the consensus, the non-consensus view would get 2% of the airtime, not 50%!

Something to remember the next time you read a newspaper piece or see something on TV about climate science. Let’s end with that fabulous quote by Richard Feynman- “Science is what we do to keep from lying to ourselves.”

What Others Say

There are some very good posts from other reputable science bloggers about the Heartland Inst. activities. Links are below:

Andy Revkin NY Times

Physicist Joe Romm

Climate Central

You might also find this video from the BBC showing how Carbon Dioxide absorbs short wave radiation interesting.

A common scene in Colorado and much of the Mountain West. Dan's pic.

I was shocked to see the extent of the pine beetle damage on my last two trips to Colorado. There seems to be growing evidence this latest infestation is being aided (perhaps greatly) by the warming climate. It seems that the extra 15 days above freezing each spring are allowing two generations of beetles per year.  The result is a lot of dead trees. This may be a good example of how our great carbon increasing experiment with the atmosphere can have unexpected consequences…

Click to read the CU press release:

The Climate Centre at Hadley has released an updated set of temperature data. This warming has caused the ocean to expand and sea level to rise. Local changes are much more difficult to measure as you can find out below.

Simon Donner at the Univ. of British Columbia has an interesting piece in EOS (AGU) this week about the difficulties in measuring the changes from climate change. These difficulties tend to be used by those wanting to make a political point to confuse people. A good reason to be very careful of accepting something you read online unless if it does not gel with the overall scientific consensus and the statements of scientific societies like the AMS,AGU, AAAS etc.

I am a regular reader of Simon’s blog posts here: http://simondonner.blogspot.com

Science is about gathering facts and observations. Science teachers- this should be a must watch video for your students in grades 7-12.