The lake effect snow machine turned on yesterday as winter finally arrived in the Northeast U.S. There is even snow over the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia as well. Notice the low stratocumulus clouds offshore, which develop when cold dry air moves over the warmer waters of the Atlantic. I forecast here on the Delmarva Peninsula, and I can tell you that forecasting what that cloud deck will do can be very tricky!

My best friend lives near Anglesey in Wales and he has had a very wet December. It is now officially the wettest on record for the NW UK.

The dry and clear air made for some nice pictures over the weekend. This is my shot from the Eastern Shore of Virginia about 65 miles south of where I live in Maryland.

The long-range ensembles (based on an average of many runs of long-range numerical guidance) continue to show the North Atlantic Oscillation staying in the negative mode. When the NAO is negative (mor eon the NAO from 2010 here), the temperatures in the eastern third of North America are usually well below normal. There does seem to be some hints of a moderating pattern in about 12 days, before it gets colder again later in the month. Other teleconnections are also showing a likelihood that January will be far colder than the record warm December.