21 August 2015

Hurricane Danny May Be at Peak Strength

Posted by Dan Satterfield

NASA Image of Danny from the Aqua satellite Friday, in true colour.

NASA Image of Danny from the Aqua satellite Friday, in true colour.

Danny now has winds near the center at 115 mph, but it is actually a rather tiny storm. Latest model runs continue a west-NW track but dry air is just to the north and wind shear will begin to impact the storm in about 48 hours. This should weaken it and the latest hires numerical model guidance shows just that.

AL04_current

Important Note: These images are shared online everywhere, but some of these model tracks are just climatology based and are discounted. Others assume a deep and strong storm and others are assuming a shallow storm, steered mainly by lower level winds. In other words all tracks are not as important and a track toward Puerto Rico is by far the most likely.

The intensity forecast from the HWRF model shows it weakening to a tropical storm in 72 hours.

wind_nest_m

Notice the dry air (brown areas) in the latest water vapor imagery from the GOES East satellite. This makes me think that Danny is now as strong as it may ever be.

wv