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You are browsing the archive for August 2017 - Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal.

31 August 2017

“We Told You So!” Is Never Welcomed If You’re On The Receiving End

Nonetheless, We told you so. A lot is being written about the fact that the urban sprawl and poor flood control planning greatly exacerbated the catastrophe in Houston, but there have indeed been warnings from scientists for years that we must prepare for more extreme rain events and higher sea levels. The science behind these increased rainfall episodes is solid, and it all goes back to an equation every meteorologist learns. It’s …

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27 August 2017

Read These Two Essays to Really Understand What Happened In Houston Last Night

When you work as a meteorologist or a reporter, you accept that there will be times when your sleep, hunger, and comfort come far behind the importance of serving the public. Last night was one of those moments for those at the NWS in Houston, and the reporters/meteorologists at Houston TV stations. At one point the NWS office had 4 tornado warnings and at least as many Flash Flood Emergency warnings …

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26 August 2017

Astounding Model Output Leads to Forecasts We Meteorologists Never Thought We Would Make

I’ve forecasted the weather for 37 years and I’ve never seen consistent model output forecasting rainfall amounts of over 30 inches before. Astounding and astonishing are the only words I can use to describe what I’ve been seeing from the numerical models. Not only that, but it’s the same with nearly every usually reliable model. Could all of the models be wrong? Could this storm fizzle rather quickly once it …

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24 August 2017

Was Driving 3,570 miles to See a Total Eclipse of the Sun Worth it? Yes!

If you did not experience totality, I suspect you might be getting tired of hearing about the eclipse by now, but if you were in the right spot, you know how amazing it really was. The story of my trip was covered by Matthew Cappucci in his excellent piece in the Washington Post, but I wanted to share some of what really surprised me. I will say though that my dog …

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18 August 2017

Numerical Weather Model Adjusted For Eclipse Forecast

There are a lot of experiments and observations that will be made during the eclipse on Monday, but I just heard of one tonight that is right up my alley! First, I have to explain some things. One of the better high-resolution weather models we use every day is called the HRRR for High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model. This model does an excellent job and has sophisticated physics that runs at …

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8 August 2017

Do Not Quote, Cite, or Distribute

Oh, why not. The draft Special Climate Assesment Report is here. The NY Times published the leaked report and it’s not good news. I plan on reading the whole thing this weekend, but the Executive Summary at the top will give you the take home points. The short of it is that climate change is already having a significant impact on our weather in the U.S. Perhaps most notable is the increase …

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3 August 2017

Uncertainty is Not Ignorance

Kate Marvel’s TED Talk is a must watch.

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