4 October 2016
We should know a lot more tomorrow about the track of Matthew. The odds are it will turn and pass near to the coast of Florida, and perhaps all the way up to the Outer Banks. There is a good chance that it will be close enough to bring very heavy rains from Florida to the Carolinas, and even as far north as the Delmarva area. The track on Matthew is dependant on the strength of a trough in the Plains, and an upper level ridge off the SE coast. We should have a better idea on how these players will steer the cyclone by midday Wed.
Haiti and Western Cuba are really getting pounded right now: Intense rains and severe flooding are reported over western Haiti, and perhaps as far east as Port-au-Prince. Western Haiti is also getting extreme winds, and so is eastern Cuba. Bad news will be coming from there I suspect… very bad. Below is a late report from the Miami Herald regarding Haiti.
Take away for the area from Florida to the Delmarva- you are NOT out of the woods yet. Extreme rainfall hit Delaware and Maryland and Virginia last week and additional heavy rains from Matthew would come at the worst possible time. You can see in the different model runs below how the forecast diverges once the storm passes east of Florida.