24 August 2016
The wind shear is forecasted to weaken greatly and it will move over an area of high tropical cyclone potential water (Based on the depth of the 26C isotherm). My gut feeling is that we have big trouble coming. If you’re living in or near South Florida, to Southern Louisiana (Yeah, I know), you need to start thinking about what and where you would go if evacuations are needed. Pay daily attention to a trusted weather source. If you see someone posting model forecasts of where a giant hurricane will be in 5-8 days, that is NOT a trusted weather source.
Images (on right) show the lower shear region Invest 99L is moving into, and a spaghetti plot showing high confidence in the track over the next 96 hours, with divergence afterwards. Some of these tracks are much less reliable than others. I show it only to give you an idea of the general threat area, IF it develops into TS Hermine.
NOAA TPC Discussion below:
Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data from the
Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave is located near Guadeloupe.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, this system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests from the islands
of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mudslides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult
products issued by your local meteorological offices for further
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent