27 May 2016
The NOAA Hurricane forecast was released today, and it calls for a 70% chance of 10-16 named storms, which is right around the long-term average of 12 each year. The most important thing to remember with these forecasts, is that the number of storms does not matter much of you get hit by just one, and secondly these type of forecasts are still rather low skill.
That said, this forecast was exactly what I expected since we do have a developing La Nina (which can increase the number of hurricanes). That said, we may be entering an era with fewer Atlantic storms, as the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation switches into the cold phase. There is still uncertainty on whether this has happened though, and NOAA makes note of the fact that with the warm ocean waters (warmest on record) the season may last longer and rising sea levels will make any land-falling storm worse than the same strength storm a few decades ago.
We already have had one named storm this year (Alex) in January, and the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami just initiated advisories this evening on a tropical depression in the Caribbean and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for South Carolina. The water temps. in the area around the Bahamas are running nearly 2° C above normal, making a very early season storm possible. This depression will likely become Tropical Storm Bonnie by later tomorrow. It may turn into a hybrid sub-tropical storm, as it moves over cooler waters off the South Carolina coast later in the weekend.
A discussion from NOAA is below:
More on the tropical depression in the Atlantic, which will likely become TS Bonnie tonight or tomorrow.
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 ...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 74.7W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River northeastward to Little River Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. A reduction of the forward speed is expected by Saturday night as the system nears the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Saturday.