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15 November 2016

Winter is Coming. It May be a Memorable One.

This is a guest post from my weather intern Andrew McCormick (Senior at Salisbury University here in Maryland). We’ve been looking at what the winter may bring for a month or so now, and Andrew has a good track record of past winter forecasts. This is a good summary of the techniques we use to make long range forecasts, and in case you’re wondering, I see nothing to disagree with …

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9 November 2016

Record Low Temperatures Are Dissapearing

Guy Walton is the former lead forecaster for the Weather Channel, but most of us meteorologists know him these days as the person who keeps track of the “ratio of record highs vs record lows”. As the planet warms, we should expect to see more record highs and fewer record lows, and the data is indeed showing just that. It’s actually impossible to miss, because the ratio itself is in …

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19 September 2016

New study “reels in” data on Utah’s winter ozone problem

A deep sea fishing rod is probably not the first tool that comes to mind when thinking about how to study air pollution in a remote inland desert, but it’s the heart of a new system that has given scientists a minute-by-minute look at how quickly the sun can convert oil and gas emissions to harmful ground-level ozone.

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1 September 2016

Extreme-weather winters are becoming more common in U.S., research shows

The simultaneous occurrence of warm winters in the West and cold winters in the East has significantly increased in recent decades. The damaging and costly phenomenon is very likely attributable to human-caused climate change, according to a new study.

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30 August 2016

Wildfire smoke hacks clouds

Plumes of wildfire smoke envelop and alter clouds, potentially affecting local weather, according to new research based on serendipitous airborne measurements of clouds in smoke from Canadian fires. The new data confirms clouds embedded in smoke are likely to warm up the atmosphere around clouds, causing the clouds to dissipate faster.

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25 July 2016

Study identifies link between cold temperatures in New York, destructive storms in Spain

In a recently published study, researchers show there’s a common atmospheric circulation pattern linking extreme weather on the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

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24 July 2016

The Heat, the Floods, and the Danger of Underestimating How to Handle it.

The NASA Terra satellite measurements of ground temps. in the early afternoon clearly show the heat, and the extra heat added by the urban concrete (and road systems) was clearly visible. On a day like today, large cities can be much hotter than the rural areas. Also, notice how the temps near the Delaware coast are hotter than inland in Delaware (and here on the Eastern Shore of Maryland). A …

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6 July 2016

‘The Blob’ overshadows El Niño

Research identifies earlier ocean warming as dominant effect off West Coast.

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28 June 2016

Up to 8 Inches of Rain Fall on the Eastern Shore of Maryland

I live here on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, and we had a severe flood event last night. Nearly 6 inches of rain fell at my house. This comes after my post yesterday about the difficulty in forecasting extreme events like floods. Look below and read what I posted to my local viewers about the event. This area is flat, so we did not have any loss of life, but …

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14 June 2016

Congressman’s idea to privatize NWS forecasts gets icy reception among broadcast meteorologists.

By Dan Satterfield I’m hearing a lot of talk among my fellow forecasters about legislation (introduced by an Oklahoma congressman) that would privatize many forecast functions of the NWS. You might think that private sector meteorologists would support this, but almost every broadcast metr. I know has panned the idea. The quality of public weather forecasts is due to the cooperation between the public and private sector, and a survey of …

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10 May 2016

Climate change could cause more concentrated storms

Rising temperatures are causing heavy rain storms to become concentrated over smaller areas, a scenario that could potentially cause extreme flooding in urban locations, according to new research.

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20 April 2016

Asian irrigation influences East African rain

Irrigation from agriculture can directly influence climate thousands of kilometers away and even leap across continents, new research finds. Up to 40 percent of the rain in some regions of East Africa can be attributed to irrigation used in agriculture in Asia, according to a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters.

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11 April 2016

Accuweather Forecasts to 90 Days are Scientifically Indefensible.

The comments from the science community when Accuweather’s started making 45 day weather forecasts were to put it mildly- blistering, and now that they have extended them to 90 days it’s no different. Forecasts of this type beyond 7-10 days (at the most) are simply not possible. If someone tells you otherwise, they’re wrong, because we are in the realm of palm reading and horoscopes here, not science. I agree …

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29 March 2016

This Has Meteorologists Talking Today

An interesting paper came out today, and it has we meteorologists talking. It’s about using sea water temperature patterns in the Pacific to forecast heat waves in the eastern portions of North America. Researchers found that when a certain pattern of water temperatures appeared, there would often be unusually hot weather in the Eastern U.S. about 40-50 days later. A statistical analysis using this method over the years 1982-2013 showed …

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15 March 2016

A rough ride down the Oregon coast

When you plan a research cruise in the winter in Oregon, there’s a good chance the weather will change your plans. That’s what happened to us this weekend. We were finally able to get back out on the ocean on Monday afternoon and we drove south to the Umpqua Hydrographic line – a seven-hour trip. It was a rough ride and most people spent it in their bunks or in the lounge, where books flew off the shelves when we hit particularly rough spots.

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29 January 2016

The Future of Weather Forecasting

With new NOAA computers for numerical weather prediction now online, the focus is to improve the models we have and develop new ones. The new High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR-H triple R to meteorologists) is just the beginning of this, and although it only runs out for 15 hours, we get a new run every hour. This is already improving short-term weather forecasts markedly. This model is run on …

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21 January 2016

Historic Storm Aims for the Mid-Atlantic. Why it’s so hard to predict it!

There is little doubt that a major and perhaps historic blizzard will hit DC, Baltimore, and up toward Philadelphia Friday afternoon, lingering into late Saturday night. Winds will be very high along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts, with gusts well above 60 mph, and significant coastal flooding. There’s very high confidence in this forecast based on a close agreement among all the numerical weather models, but the details …

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13 January 2016

Ocean circulation changes may have killed cold-water corals

Successive and abrupt changes in North Atlantic ocean circulation over the past 4,500 years seem to have caused major reductions in some cold-water coral ecosystems, finds a study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The new study shows changes in sea surface circulation over the last few thousand years were more sudden than previously thought and in some cases led to abrupt collapses of cold-water coral ecosystems. The researchers found the first evidence that perturbations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) led to cold-water coral ecosystems decline from 100 to 1,200 years ago.

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18 December 2015

A natural experiment: City in pristine Amazon shows pollution alters ecosystem

Human-made pollutants are changing cloud patterns over the Amazon, altering ecosystems in the process.

Sometimes, the best experiments come ready-made from nature. The Brazilian city of Manaus has a population of almost 2 million people and sits in the heart of an otherwise pristine stretch of Amazonian rainforest, near the place where the Negro and Solimões tributaries fuse to form the Amazon River. New research using the area as a testing ground shows that Manaus city pollutants meddle with the Amazon’s cloud cover, rain and ecosystem, according to scientists who presented the finding at the 2015 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.

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14 December 2015

November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week, and linger through the weekend, but after that the temps. will once again soar. The map below shows the average 5 day temperatures from the 21st to the 26th. Highs will be more than 10 degrees …

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