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7 September 2017

This Looks Bad- Very Bad.

My hopes that Irma would turn just east of Florida are diminishing tonight. If the eye stayed just offshore the damage would be FAR less than a landfall. Remember that those 170 mph winds are concentrated right around the eye, and if that eyewall stayed offshore the winds would not likely go above hurricane force except in gusts along the coast. The worst scenario I can imagine is a Cat 4 …

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6 September 2017

Catastrophe Coming for Barbuda

Irma has become a real monster tonight, with the pressure dropping to 916 mb and winds of 185 mph with gusts well over 200 mph. The pressure dropped significantly in the late afternoon and evening but it often takes a few hours for the winds to increase. For Barbuda, it does not matter, the island is about to be hit with 185 mph winds and that means few structures or …

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27 August 2017

Read These Two Essays to Really Understand What Happened In Houston Last Night

When you work as a meteorologist or a reporter, you accept that there will be times when your sleep, hunger, and comfort come far behind the importance of serving the public. Last night was one of those moments for those at the NWS in Houston, and the reporters/meteorologists at Houston TV stations. At one point the NWS office had 4 tornado warnings and at least as many Flash Flood Emergency warnings …

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19 June 2017

Fire & Rain, and Heat as Well.

Intense heat, with low humidity has led to a horrible catastrophe in Portugal. The hot and dry weather in Europe led to a firestorm in Portugal that killed at least 60 people. A strong upper level high pressure system will stay over the area tomorrow and little or no rain is in sight. This high pressure is bringing warm weather all the way into the UK with highs tomorrow in …

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5 October 2016

Did The Euro Model Just Pull Another Forecast Coup?

Matthew is gaining strength again tonight, and Florida and South Carolina are still going to see a significant (perhaps severe) storm. If the eye stays out to sea, it will not be as bad as it could be, but if it crosses just inland, much greater damage and a major storm surge is likely. Still a rather large disagreement between the higher res. regional models and the global models today. The …

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24 August 2016

Big Trouble Brewing For Southeast U.S.??

Tropical Update : I’m not going to post any specific model data since there is still quite a bit of disagreement, and any individual run this far out is worthless, but that said: My concern that a tropical cyclone will threaten the SE U.S. in 5-7 days is growing rapidly. The system is looking much healthier on the satellite images tonight. Increased convection and shear seems less. The wind shear …

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6 July 2016

Monster Typhoon Nepartak Approaching Taiwan

Radar from the Taiwan Weather Service shows the first rain bands approaching Taiwan, Winds are at 150 knots near the center of Nepartak, but it should weaken some before landfall, as it encounters the mountains of Taiwan, and slightly cooler water. It will still be a very dangerous storm though, and it will cross into mainland China, and drop very heavy rainfall over the same area that experienced severe flooding …

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10 July 2015

Super Typhoon Headed Toward 23 Million People in Shanghai

The latest track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows Super Typhoon Chan-Hom passing very near Shanghai, and landfall will likely be south of the city, putting Shanghai in the path of the highest storm surge. Winds are estimated at 120 knots, and while it will weaken some before landfall, it will still likely produce a major storm surge. This storm looks very healthy on satellite images tonight, and it …

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15 June 2015

Severe Flood Threat for Texas and Oklahoma Rising

Virtually all of the global and regional numerical weather models are showing the potential for very heavy rainfall from what will soon be Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf. Even if this region had not had historic flooding in May, this would be a big deal, but with the soggy ground, we are now looking at the potential for a very severe and costly flood event. There are some indications …

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4 May 2015

Tropical Cyclone Brewing In the Atlantic??

A tropical cyclone in early May is VERY rare in the Atlantic. Hurricane season does not start until June first, but there’s only about a 50% chance (on average) of seeing a June storm in the Atlantic Basin. That said, there are indications of a possible tropical cyclone developing east of Cuba in the next 36 hours, with several different numerical models indicating development. Some of the model guidance brings …

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1 April 2015

Jaw Dropping Images of Super Typhoon Maysak

NASA Astronauts have been sending back jaw dropping images of Super Typhoon Maysak, headed toward the Philippines with winds of nearly 240 km/hr. Astronaut Terry Virts uploaded some incredible photos of the eye of Maysak to his Twitter account as well and they provide one of the best views of an intense tropical cyclone ever made from low Earth orbit. The Super Typhoone is likely going to hit the northern Philippines in …

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12 December 2014

What Do Category 5 Hurricanes Have To Do With The Amazon River?

This freshwater plume inhibits the mixing of colder water beneath the surface, and thus can add a lot of heat to an already powerful hurricane. The NASA Aquarius satellite has a sensor that can measure ocean surface salinity, and it’s data produced the the video below. A paper about this plume and how it can affect hurricanes was published in Geophysical research Letters in 2012. It’s free to read here. …

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10 July 2014

Mid-Summer Taste of Autumn Next Week? Probably!

What is going on? Is it the revenge of the polar vortex? Actually, it’s probably connected to Japanese Typhoon Neogori that at one time was packing 260 kph winds. It is moving into southern Japan now, but the global weather models all indicate that it will push a lot of warm and humid air into the high latitudes north of Japan. This will push the jet-stream northward, and the downstream …

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7 July 2014

Super Typhoon Neogori Heads toward Japan.

The typhoon should weaken before hitting Japan, but Kyushu (southern most island) will get a ton of rain and wind. Flooding rains have already been reported earlier in the week so the soil is already saturated. ISS Astronaut Reid Wisemen sent back this shot of an oddly shaped eye on Neogori. (Perhaps related to the fact it was undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle.)

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4 July 2014

True Colour View of Arthur from NASA (Doppler sees winds at 100 MPH)

Frying Pan Shoals off the North Carolina coast caught a gust to 99 mph on their weather station. They were in the eye-wall of Hurricane Arthur at the time. Here on the Delmarva Peninsula there is a real risk of extreme rip currents behind the storm. With thousands of folks streaming to the Maryland and Delaware beaches for the holiday weekend, this is a serious threat. Something to think about: …

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2 July 2014

Arthur’s Ripples

  You may need to click on the image above to really see the ripples across the top of Arthur, so do that first, before I tell you why they are there. You are looking at gravity waves, but a better way of understanding it is to compare it to the ripples you see after you throw a rock into a still pond. The rock disturbs the water and makes …

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12 November 2013

Was Haiyan Caused By Climate Change? We Might Know In 30 Years.

There are claims going around that Typhoon Haiyan was a result of climate change, and this is nothing short of ridiculous.  There is some evidence that climate change will change the numbers (and intensity) of tropical cyclones, and some that the storms that do form will be stronger and wetter. That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty in those predictions. An excellent paper on this subject is from …

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10 November 2013

Scope Of The Philippine Disaster Becoming Apparent

Two videos you should see. It now seems the death toll will be in the thousands…perhaps the tens of thousands… and the aftermath…      

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8 November 2013

Amazing Image of Haiyan From SUOMI

The resolution is 375 meters on this image. Ctsy. Dan Lindsey at CIRA in Colorado. There was apparently a big jump in lightning around the eye at landfall. More on that here. GOES R will have on-board lightning detection when it launches in a couple of years. This instrument alone is likely to lead to some new discoveries and significant improvements in now-casting and forecasting. A nice loop of the …

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7 November 2013

The Philippines Holds Its Breath as Severe Typhoon Haiyan Approaches

Winds of over 190 mph and millions in its path. High potential for a major catastrophe. Radar image at sunrise in the Philippines showing an intense eye wall approaching… Bacolod, a city of over a half million, may get the brunt of Haiyan.

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