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7 October 2016

What People Who Do Not Evacuate from A Hurricane Do Not Know

Have you been in a hurricane? I mean have you been in the eye-wall right by the eye, or in the actual eye of the storm?? Was it a category three or higher? Be honest with yourself, and think about that. If the answer is no, not really, then you have NOT been in a hurricane. I think this is why many people do not evacuate; they just do not …

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5 October 2016

Did The Euro Model Just Pull Another Forecast Coup?

Matthew is gaining strength again tonight, and Florida and South Carolina are still going to see a significant (perhaps severe) storm. If the eye stays out to sea, it will not be as bad as it could be, but if it crosses just inland, much greater damage and a major storm surge is likely. Still a rather large disagreement between the higher res. regional models and the global models today. The …

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14 August 2016

Catastrophic Flood Event Underway In Louisiana

Thousands of people have been rescued, and thousands of others are trapped by flood waters in Louisiana tonight, as over 20 inches of rain fell starting early Friday and through the weekend. I’m going to post various images/data to put some context into what/why this is happening. These floods are not yet over, and the threat is now increasing in parts of Missouri and Illinois, where up to 6 inches …

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2 August 2016

The Data is In from Ellicott City’s Flood Saturday Night. It’s Incredible.

The NWS in Baltimore-Washington posted an excellent summary of the data from the historic (and deadly) flood in Ellicott City, MD. on Saturday evening. I wrote about this flood yesterday but there is even more data now from flood gauges on area streams and more precise rainfall data. Go here: http://www.weather.gov/lwx//EllicottCityFlood2016 . The stream gauge data shows just how quickly the local streams can rise in an event like this. There has …

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3 July 2016

The Science Behind That Awesome Photo You Saw on Twitter or Facebook

Meteorologist see a whole lot more in this image however, and it even shows the promise of better warnings of severe weather. This is especially true for rural areas/ poor nations that have only a rudimentary severe weather warning system in place. The image was apparently taken from an airliner over the Pacific.  You’re looking at a very intense thunderstorm, with an updraft of air that towers into the stratosphere …

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27 April 2016

Properly Communicating a Forecast Is Just As Important as Accuracy

The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe weather verified fairly well yesterday. There were not that many tornadoes and the reason for this was likely that the wind shear was not that favorable in spite of an extremely unstable airmass. Still, the graphic above shows where the reports of wind damage, hail, and tornadoes were, and it matches well with the forecast outlook. The storms forecasted for New Jersey developed, …

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26 April 2016

GOES 14 One Minute Imagery of Plains Storms

The spare GOES 14 weather satellite can send back an image every minute, and it was turned on today to give forecasters a look at the tornado and severe storms developing in the Plains. We will see this imagery more frequently in the future after the launch of the GOES R weather satellite next fall. You can see the imagery at the link below, but you will need a good …

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23 March 2016

Snow and Fire In The Plains

Denver is getting buried by what may turn out to be a historic spring blizzard. Twenty inches, and it’s still falling. The airport has shut down, and travel is nearly impossible on area roads. The winds are gusting to 55 mph in Denver and the snow is pouring down, while the visibility is not much better than 300 meters. It’s a real high Plains blizzard, and it is bringing Denver …

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11 March 2016

Attributing Extreme Weather Events to Climate Change

My friend Heidi Cullen at Climate Central in Princeton has an excellent Op-Ed in the New York Times today. It’s about a new study released by the National Academies on attributing extreme weather events to climate change. The study itself is on my reading list for tonight, and you can read it yourself for free. Just click the image below. I know several of the researchers who worked on this …

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8 March 2016

Major Flood Event Underway From Texas to Missouri

A major flood threat is underway in Texas, and in the Miss. Valley tonight, and it will continue through the next 3 days or longer. Severe storms are also possible, but rain amounts of over 10 inches are possible, as an intense El Nino induced storm stalls over the area. This is the same storm that brought rain and snow to California late Sunday and Monday. This storm is moving slowly, …

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29 February 2016

23|5 Talks at the AMS Annual Meeting

I was honored to be master of ceremonies at the 23-5 session (23.5 degrees is the tilt of Earth respect to the ecliptic) at the AMS Annual Meeting in January, and the video from the session is now online. The talks were all fantastic, and the evening ended with the movie based on Dr. Oreskes’ book Merchants of Doubt. When someone who thinks climate change is a hoax made up by …

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23 February 2016

Stunning One Minute Rapid-Scan GOES 14 Images

This is the current image from the GOES-14 satellite that is in storage. It is turned on for high impact weather events because it can send one minute images. The tornado outbreak expected on the Gulf Coast today certainly ranks as a high impact event, and we should have this data through the evening. When GOES R launches we will see  even higher resolution images at 30 second intervals along …

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4 February 2016

Really NBC?? Really??

Really NBC? Really?? Did you forget about the SPC Enhanced risk outlook from two days before. Did you forget about the Tornado Watch hours before, and the numerous tornado warnings minutes before?? Really?? You owe an apology to the NWS and the broadcast mets in that area who made sure there WAS a warning. Really. You do. The map below was issued by the Storm Prediction Center about 36 HOURS …

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17 January 2016

Meteo-Tsunami in Naples Area

  A rare event seems to have happened in SW Florida this morning, as a strong squall line moved through. It’s called a meteo-tsunami, and it pushed water levels up by over 5 feet! The squall line also produced at least two tornadoes, with one of them causing significant damage to 14 homes near Cape Coral. A real clue that this was indeed a meteo tsunami, is the pressure couplet recorded by the Naples tide buoy. …

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1 January 2016

December 2015 Re-writes The Record Books. So Does the Entire Year.

December 2015 is in the record books and it was not just the warmest December on record for much of the Eastern Seaboard, it broke the old records by an amount that’s best described as incredible. This is what happens when you combine the strongest El Nino event on record, with the hottest year on record globally, along with the hottest oceans on record as well. Dr. Michael Mann at …

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28 December 2015

Bizarre December Weather Continues

  The Garland, Texas tornado (on Boxing Day) has been rated EF 4 with winds around 200 mph. The Doppler radar network now using dual polarization made it possible to know that the tornado was on the ground and lofting debris into the air. This is perfect example of how fundamental science research can lead to life saving technology. Below is an update on the Dallas area tornado outbreak from …

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24 December 2015

Long Track Tornado In Mississippi in Late December!

The image above shows intense rotation caused by a violent tornado near Holly Springs in Miss. this afternoon. Check out the YouTube video of this long track tornado below. December tornadoes happen but a long track violent tornado in late December is very rare.   Highs will climb into the 70’s, and break the record highs in most areas of the Mid-Atlantic and New England Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible as …

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29 November 2015

What A Cold Front!

A rather incredible surface temperature chart greeted meteorologists this afternoon. An extremely sharp frontal boundary separated very warm weather from unusually cold. Behind the front, temperatures were 10-20 degrees below average, and ahead of it 10-15 degrees above average, and in some spots the departure from normal was even greater. Look at the temperatures at 1 PM EST and you can see that towns in western MS were reporting temps. …

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17 November 2015

I’ve Never Seen Hail Like This Before

Rain drops and hail stones need something to form around, and we refer to this as condensation nuclei. The image below shows something else though. A tornado in the Texas panhandle last night picked up stalks of corn, and lifted them high into the atmosphere, where water froze on it, turning it into a hail stone. The picture was taken by Johnny Goodson of Pampa,Texas. That was one powerful updraft, …

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6 November 2015

Did Climate Change Make “This” Storm Worse? Perhaps.

The AMS has published its annual look at how climate change may have impacted certain major weather events, and it makes for some fascinating reading. This kind of research is called an attribution study, and they can be very informative. One of the most famous, was done by Dr. Ben Santer (Nat. Academies) that showed how different greenhouse warming looks vs. warming due to an increase in energy from the …

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