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24 August 2016

Big Trouble Brewing For Southeast U.S.??

Tropical Update : I’m not going to post any specific model data since there is still quite a bit of disagreement, and any individual run this far out is worthless, but that said: My concern that a tropical cyclone will threaten the SE U.S. in 5-7 days is growing rapidly. The system is looking much healthier on the satellite images tonight. Increased convection and shear seems less. The wind shear …

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28 July 2016

NOAA Makes Decision on New Global Weather Model. Controversy Likely.

NOAA has decided on the nuts and bolts of a new, next generation, weather model that will replace the present Global Forecast System (GFS model), and the choice is sure to spark some controversy. The choice boiled down to a system called MPAS vs FV3. Many meteorologists were rooting for MPAS, which was developed by NCAR, while NOAA was leaning toward the FV3 which was a project of the GFDL …

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3 June 2016

New Climate Spiral From Ed Hawkins

A big hat tip to the folks at Climate Central for alerting me to this. You likely saw the climate spiral courtesy of Ed Hawkins who is a climate scientist at the Univ. of Reading (UK). It melted the internet last month. Now he has made a new one showing how it will change for the rest of the century based on the latest most sophisticated models (which have done …

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26 April 2016

GOES 14 One Minute Imagery of Plains Storms

The spare GOES 14 weather satellite can send back an image every minute, and it was turned on today to give forecasters a look at the tornado and severe storms developing in the Plains. We will see this imagery more frequently in the future after the launch of the GOES R weather satellite next fall. You can see the imagery at the link below, but you will need a good …

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13 April 2016

GOES R Launch Date Set: Will Revolutionize Weather Forecasting

    I have mentioned the new GOES R frequently, and we are now down to 6 months from the launch. I wrote a post last year about how it will revolutionize forecasting. I also did this on air report on WBOC TV in February, discussing how the launch will mark the beginning of a new era in forecasting and Earth observation. From NASA today: The GOES-R satellite is set to …

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6 March 2016

Beyond the Data on The Planet’s Temperature

Deke Arndt at NOAA is one of the smartest climatologists around, and I always look forward to hearing him talk, because he takes data and makes you see it in a way you did not immediately think about. By the way, for those of you who are still in school, some sage advice: always hang around with people smarter than you. You’ll never learn anything by being the smartest person in …

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17 February 2016

NOAA Data Confirms NASA Data- January 2016 Hottest Month On Record

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the Nat. Climate Data Center) posted their monthly global temperature data and it (like NASA) shows January to be the hottest month on their data base. The thermometer record goes back to 1880, but proxy data shows this was likely the hottest month on the planet in at least 2,000 years. This is the 9th month in a row with a new monthly …

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29 January 2016

The Future of Weather Forecasting

With new NOAA computers for numerical weather prediction now online, the focus is to improve the models we have and develop new ones. The new High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR-H triple R to meteorologists) is just the beginning of this, and although it only runs out for 15 hours, we get a new run every hour. This is already improving short-term weather forecasts markedly. This model is run on …

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4 December 2015

El Nino In A Can

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the simulation. …

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28 October 2015

NOAA Partners with Amazon To Make Real Time and Historical Radar Data Available.

In many countries (like the UK/France or Italy), this kind of data would cost you a ton of money. Here in the U.S. our weather data is very cheap. Check out the press release from NOAA today below: Partnering with Amazon Web Services on Big Data This visualization, created with NEXRAD Level II data, depicts Hurricane Katrina as it made landfall in 2005. On October 27, 2015, Amazon Web Services(link …

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21 October 2015

September Global Heat Record Smashed. 2015 Will Almost Certainly Pass 2014 as Hottest on Record

September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …

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10 September 2015

Questions About El Nino Answered

The 2015 El Nino event will go down in history as one of the strongest ever, and likely as THE Strongest. While it is impossible to give an exact idea of what this will mean for your area, we can give you some likely scenarios for the upcoming winter, with more confidence in some areas than in others. There are also some misconceptions out there that I hopefully will dispel in this post! First the …

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20 July 2015

NOAA: June 2015 Hottest On Record Globally

  From NOAA: The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for the month of June since record keeping began in 1880. The first half of the year (January–June) was also record warm. (Last year 2014, was the hottest year on record, but so far 2015 is beating it, and with the strong El Nino underway, and CO2 levels past 400 ppm, the …

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24 June 2015

Science communication about hydrography – Captain America to the rescue!

When asked to speak to the public about surveying the ocean floor at the Smithsonian, how was I possibly going to compete with the Hope Diamond and dinosaurs for the attention of visitors? Captain America came to my rescue!

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10 June 2015

Keeling Curve research sites as National Historic Chemical Landmarks

NOAA and the American Chemical Society have designated Earth’s modern atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) record started at the Mauna Loa Observatory as a National Historic Chemical Landmark.

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The U.S. Is About To Almost Catch Up to Japan and Europe With GOES-R Satellite

I spent the day in a short course on weather satellites here in Raleigh,NC today. The course is part of the 43rd AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology, and I was invited to present a talk about some experimental products I evaluated at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Test-Bed last June. We spent the day looking at exactly what the GOES-R will be able to see, and what each of the visible …

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28 May 2015

Alaska Sees Earliest 90 Degree Temperatures On Record

From climate.NOAA.gov today: This temperature map of Alaska shows the unusual warmth on May 23, 2015, at 2 p.m. local time in Fairbanks.  Based on NOAA’s Real-time Mesoscale Analysis data, it shows air temperatures at 2 meters (6.6 feet) above the ground. Temperatures below 45° are shades of blue, and temperatures above 45° are shades of orange and red. The warmest temperatures are located inland—away from the moderating influence of …

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27 May 2015

NOAA Issues 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast

You cannot learn to forecast something if you do not try, and testing predictions is what science is all about, so with that in mind, here is the hurricane forecast from NOAA for 2015. There is not a lot of skill in these forecasts, but this year we have some help. A growing El Nino (that looks like it may be a strong one) is the major factor in the …

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19 May 2015

NOAA: 2015 So Far is Hottest On Record

NASA released their data last week showing that the year so far is the hottest on record, and NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly National Climate Data Center) came out with their summary today. NASA and NOAA (along with the UK and Japan) use slightly different methods to compile the data, which is a very common method in science. More from NOAA NCEI: Global highlights: April 2015     …

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4 May 2015

Tropical Cyclone Brewing In the Atlantic??

A tropical cyclone in early May is VERY rare in the Atlantic. Hurricane season does not start until June first, but there’s only about a 50% chance (on average) of seeing a June storm in the Atlantic Basin. That said, there are indications of a possible tropical cyclone developing east of Cuba in the next 36 hours, with several different numerical models indicating development. Some of the model guidance brings …

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