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23 October 2015

Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia Heads To Mexico with Winds Near 200 MPH. Strongest East Pacific Storm On Record!

Mexico’s Pacific Coast has rarely, if ever, been hit by a Cat 5 severe hurricane, but that is exactly what will happen tomorrow between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A hurricane hunter dropsonde report showed winds reaching 179 knots or 206 mph at flight level near the eye and surface winds are now near 185¬†mph. This truly is a monster storm. It will produce a catastrophic storm surge where it makes …


21 August 2015

Hurricane Danny May Be at Peak Strength

Danny now has winds near the center at 115 mph, but it is actually a rather tiny storm. Latest model runs continue a west-NW track but dry air is just to the north and wind shear will begin to impact the storm in about 48 hours. This should weaken it and the latest hires numerical model guidance shows just that. The intensity forecast from the HWRF model shows it weakening …


20 August 2015

Update on Hurricane Danny

Latest water vapor wavelength IR images show a large area of rather dry air ahead of Danny, and it looks like this will continue to impact the tropical cyclone, as it approaches the Windward islands early next week. By Sunday, the storm will also begin to run into more wind shear in the troposphere, and this will (at the least) keep it from strengthening as well. The Hurricane WRF model …


27 May 2015

NOAA Issues 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast

You cannot learn to forecast something if you do not try, and testing predictions is what science is all about, so with that in mind, here is the hurricane forecast from NOAA for 2015. There is not a lot of skill in these forecasts, but this year we have some help. A growing El Nino (that looks like it may be a strong one) is the major factor in the …


14 May 2015

Here is The Chance of A Major Hurricane Hitting The U.S. Coast this Year

This is really a great video from NASA, but what I like the most about it is how they explain a subtle fact of statistics that almost everyone, especially gamblers, basketball, and baseball players get wrong. With an El Nino brewing, we may see a quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season. Like 1992, when we only had one storm make landfall on the coast of North America. Hurricane Andrew, a Category …


12 December 2014

What Do Category 5 Hurricanes Have To Do With The Amazon River?

This freshwater plume inhibits the mixing of colder water beneath the surface, and thus can add a lot of heat to an already powerful hurricane. The NASA Aquarius satellite has a sensor that can measure ocean surface salinity, and it’s data produced the the video below. A paper about this plume and how it can affect hurricanes was published in Geophysical research Letters in 2012. It’s free to read here. …


26 August 2014

GOES 14 Rapid Scan images of Hurricane Cristobal

This is the kind of satellite imagery we will see daily when GOES R launches in 2016, and it will be even higher resolution spatially and temporally. GOES 14 is a spare satellite that is turned on and checked out from time to time. It can take one minute rapid scan images. GOES R will be able to do this at two spots simultaneously.   Post by NOAA NWS Weather …


18 August 2014

Camille Struck 45 Years Ago Tonight

The stagnant muggy heat of August began to break 45 years ago today on the coast of Mississippi, as clouds and winds increased. Later that evening the world turned upside down as a 30 foot wall of water whipped by winds of an incredible 190 mph changed the Mississippi Coast forever.Hurricane Camille was one of the most violent hurricanes ever to hit the mainland U.S., and it still ranks with …


7 July 2014

Super Typhoon Neogori Heads toward Japan.

The typhoon should weaken before hitting Japan, but Kyushu (southern most island) will get a ton of rain and wind. Flooding rains have already been reported earlier in the week so the soil is already saturated. ISS Astronaut Reid Wisemen sent back this shot of an oddly shaped eye on Neogori. (Perhaps related to the fact it was undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle.)


2 July 2014

Arthur’s Ripples

  You may need to click on the image above to really see the ripples across the top of Arthur, so do that first, before I tell you why they are there. You are looking at gravity waves, but a better way of understanding it is to compare it to the ripples you see after you throw a rock into a still pond. The rock disturbs the water and makes …


27 October 2013

The Big UK Windstorm You Will Hear About Tomorrow

There are some signs that the low may not reach quite the intensity earlier, but I would not count on that. It may indeed may be one of the strongest storms in quite sometime in Britain. Matt Taylor’s weather broadcast on the BBC is below: Click image to see it. Below is the GFS Model for 3 AM Tuesday morning. The height of the storm will likely be Monday night. …


9 September 2013

Are Hurricane Season Forecasts Ready For Prime Time??

Weather and climate forecasts have value because decisions and plans can be made that save money, and (more importantly) lives. This is why so much research is underway into making an accurate prediction of what the rate of sea level rise will be in the coming decades, and how precipitation patterns will change as the planet gets warmer (from increasing greenhouse gases). Shorter predictions for a few months ahead can …


6 June 2013

GOES 14 Satellite Rapid Scan Imagery of Tropical Storm Andrea Today.

The GOES R satellite will be able to do ONE minute rapid scans in two different locations when it is launched in two years! (If budget cuts don’t delay it, we will finally catch up to Europe with satellite technology.) Here is a wider shot (Visible channel) of 15 min images. Hat tip to Metr. Brad Panovich for this one: and an IR/VIS POES Image below: