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12 December 2013

Lasers and radar find typhoon risks in the Philippines

A new way to identify areas at risk for landslides will help countries avoid tragedies like super-typhoon Bopha. The storm slammed into the Philippines in 2012, killing 1,200 people and causing $1 billion in damage. Scientists from the University of the Philippines are using lasers and radar to identify alluvial fans: sediment deposits resulting from streams or debris flows. Debris flows are landslides with rocks and dirt wet enough to …

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27 October 2013

The Big UK Windstorm You Will Hear About Tomorrow

There are some signs that the low may not reach quite the intensity earlier, but I would not count on that. It may indeed may be one of the strongest storms in quite sometime in Britain. Matt Taylor’s weather broadcast on the BBC is below: Click image to see it. Below is the GFS Model for 3 AM Tuesday morning. The height of the storm will likely be Monday night. …

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19 September 2013

First reports of a major landslide in Mexico

Initial reports are emerging that a landslide at the village of La Pintada in Mexico has left 58 people missing

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9 September 2013

Are Hurricane Season Forecasts Ready For Prime Time??

Weather and climate forecasts have value because decisions and plans can be made that save money, and (more importantly) lives. This is why so much research is underway into making an accurate prediction of what the rate of sea level rise will be in the coming decades, and how precipitation patterns will change as the planet gets warmer (from increasing greenhouse gases). Shorter predictions for a few months ahead can …

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6 June 2013

GOES 14 Satellite Rapid Scan Imagery of Tropical Storm Andrea Today.

The GOES R satellite will be able to do ONE minute rapid scans in two different locations when it is launched in two years! (If budget cuts don’t delay it, we will finally catch up to Europe with satellite technology.) Here is a wider shot (Visible channel) of 15 min images. Hat tip to Metr. Brad Panovich for this one: and an IR/VIS POES Image below:

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3 June 2013

Hurricane Sandy took highly unusual path, but climate change doesn’t get the blame – yet

Hurricane Sandy’s peculiar path was exceedingly rare, but whether or not climate change influenced the trajectory remains unknown, new research suggests. Sandy differed from most North Atlantic hurricanes by veering west over the northeastern United States and merging with a winter storm. But nothing proved more unusual about the “superstorm” than the nearly perpendicular angle at which it approached the New Jersey shoreline and collided with the coast on October 29, 2012. Usually, hurricanes graze the coast rather than plunging into it head on.

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23 May 2013

NOAA: 70% Chance of Unusually Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

The NOAA outlook for this hurricane season is out. Theses forecasts have some skill but it is well to remember that SOME is the operative word here. That said there are growing indications that this will be an active year. Perhaps very active… Here is the public release from NOAA: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues May 23, 2013 Hurricane Sandy as seen …

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19 April 2013

Exploring a changing coast in the face of sea level rise – Galveston, Texas

Over 80 scientists gathered at a conference here this week to share their latest research on past, current, and projected future sea level rise and to discuss how this information can be used to shape policy. Despite their diverse perspectives and expertise, one thing the scientists agreed on for sure: the rates and impacts of sea level rise are local and communities are facing a growing risk.

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5 April 2013

Hurricane Forecasts and The Shrinking Cone of Uncertainty

Two events of note to mention regarding hurricanes and tropical meteorology this week. That familiar cone you see during hurricane season actually has some science to it. The width of the cone is based on the past accuracy of tropical cyclone predictions made by the National Hurricane Center. As the track predictions have improved the cone gets more narrow. Brian McNoldy at the uni. of Miami RSMAS put together a great image showing the difference in the cone from 2008 compared to …

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10 November 2012

Before and After Superstorm Sandy- USGS Releases Amazing pics.

Sandy DID cut a new inlet on Fire Island NY. USGS image. Barrier Islands are nature’s buffer from storms. New inlets are a natural occurrence during storms and the sands are constantly shifting. Building on them is fraught with risk, but taxpayers all pay for the federal flood insurance that protects property owners there. After Sandy, I suspect there will be a much greater discussion about whether this is a …

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1 November 2012

What Those Who Understand Atmospheric Physics Are Talking About After Sandy

Asking if Hurricane Sandy was caused by climate change is like asking someone at the South Pole which way is north. This kind of storm could almost certainly form in a world where the CO2 levels have been unchanging and Arctic sea ice levels were stable. That said, anyone who claims Sandy was ( or was not) caused by the changing climate just doesn’t get it. It may be possible …

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30 October 2012

Delmarva After The Storm

It was night to remember with the winds howling for hours here on Delmarva. While I was doing the weather updates I could hear the wind rattling the doors of the studio here in Salisbury. While the damage is worse in Jersey and New York, it is bad here as well and the Delmarva Peninsula had more rain from Sandy than anywhere else. The rain gauge in my front yard (a cocorahs …

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29 October 2012

East Coast Waits For the Hammer To Drop

This statement from the Mount Holly, New Jersey NWS Office speaks for itself. I would heed it if you are in Delaware NJ or NYC. Ocean City MD is already getting gusts to 47 mph, and the surge there may reach 4-5 feet as well. I am seeing some model forecasts of 10-13 foot storm surge levels around the NYC area. This would be a Billion dollar disaster if this verifies, and …

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25 October 2012

Northeast Spooked By Potential Franken-Storm (and they should be!)

Hurricane Sandy is feeding off the warm water of the Bahamas tonight, but as it moves northward over the weekend, it will begin to transition to a more nor’easter like storm that takes its energy from temperature differences in the atmosphere. We may even see Sandy weaken for an extended period before becoming perhaps even more powerful as it curves into the NE coast.  Tropical systems almost always have a fairly tight wind field. The …

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30 August 2012

Hurricane Isaac By Moonlight

Can you spot Richmond, Okla. City, Tulsa, and Springfield, Missouri?? That should be a good start for you. As far as know, this is the first time a hurricane has been imaged by natural light at night. Certainly the first over the U.S. A nice image of the power of Mother Nature against the backdrop of mankind’s domination of the Earth’s surface. More on Suomi and the VIRRS here.

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29 August 2012

Hurricane Isaac Strengthens Noticeably At Landfall. Risk to New Orleans Increasing.

Winds are gusting to over 100 mph just offshore now and winds are already gusting to near 80 mph around the New Orleans area tonight. The radar data shows a shrinking eye wall and that also indicates the Isaac has gotten stronger. The track now seems likely to put New Orleans in the wettest and windiest part of the storm. The storm surge and the rainfall remain the biggest worries. If you are in …

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28 August 2012

Isaac heads For The Big Un-Easy

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3 August 2012

Someone Turned On The Switch In The Tropical Atlantic

Besides Ernesto just north of South America, we have a tropical wave near the Bahamas and another looking very healthy off the coast of Africa this afternoon. The tropics are really heating up now. It’s tIme to check on your hurricane kits if you live near the coast.

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26 June 2012

Brutal heat and Severe Flooding

Highs reached 109 (over 40 degrees C for the rest of the more enlightened the world) in Oklahoma on Monday and it was 105 in Limon Colorado and above 105 across much of Kansas. It even reached 102 in NW Alabama but I think the heat will get much worse later this week and spread over an unusually large region fo the U.S. In 33 years of forecasting I have never seen an NWP …

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24 June 2012

Debby Drifting Northeastward- NHC Track Change

As I wrote earlier today, the track on Debby remains very difficult but now the Euro model is drifting it slowly into the Florida Panhandle. Heavy rains, and even some tornadoes have been reported over mainland Florida and more is on the way. The story of Debby will be water, not wind. If you had plans for the Gulf Coast this week from Pensacola eastward, it’s time to cancel them. Debby may …

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