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21 August 2015
Danny now has winds near the center at 115 mph, but it is actually a rather tiny storm. Latest model runs continue a west-NW track but dry air is just to the north and wind shear will begin to impact the storm in about 48 hours. This should weaken it and the latest hires numerical model guidance shows just that. The intensity forecast from the HWRF model shows it weakening …
20 August 2015
Latest water vapor wavelength IR images show a large area of rather dry air ahead of Danny, and it looks like this will continue to impact the tropical cyclone, as it approaches the Windward islands early next week. By Sunday, the storm will also begin to run into more wind shear in the troposphere, and this will (at the least) keep it from strengthening as well. The Hurricane WRF model …
27 May 2015
You cannot learn to forecast something if you do not try, and testing predictions is what science is all about, so with that in mind, here is the hurricane forecast from NOAA for 2015. There is not a lot of skill in these forecasts, but this year we have some help. A growing El Nino (that looks like it may be a strong one) is the major factor in the …
14 May 2015
This is really a great video from NASA, but what I like the most about it is how they explain a subtle fact of statistics that almost everyone, especially gamblers, basketball, and baseball players get wrong. With an El Nino brewing, we may see a quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season. Like 1992, when we only had one storm make landfall on the coast of North America. Hurricane Andrew, a Category …
12 December 2014
This freshwater plume inhibits the mixing of colder water beneath the surface, and thus can add a lot of heat to an already powerful hurricane. The NASA Aquarius satellite has a sensor that can measure ocean surface salinity, and it’s data produced the the video below. A paper about this plume and how it can affect hurricanes was published in Geophysical research Letters in 2012. It’s free to read here. …
6 October 2014
This December, USGS will release a beta version of interactive computer models created from data collected by that laser-equipped plane—known as the second generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL-B)—and other equipment that mapped and monitored the New Jersey coast. The online portal will allow anyone to look at storm intensities and directions, evaluate wave attack scenarios and coastal vulnerabilities, and anticipate the impacts to landscapes ahead of time, said Neil Ganju, a USGS research oceanographer, at a 19 September congressional briefing on the Department of the Interior’s response to Hurricane Sandy.
26 August 2014
This is the kind of satellite imagery we will see daily when GOES R launches in 2016, and it will be even higher resolution spatially and temporally. GOES 14 is a spare satellite that is turned on and checked out from time to time. It can take one minute rapid scan images. GOES R will be able to do this at two spots simultaneously. Post by NOAA NWS Weather …
18 August 2014
The stagnant muggy heat of August began to break 45 years ago today on the coast of Mississippi, as clouds and winds increased. Later that evening the world turned upside down as a 30 foot wall of water whipped by winds of an incredible 190 mph changed the Mississippi Coast forever.Hurricane Camille was one of the most violent hurricanes ever to hit the mainland U.S., and it still ranks with …
5 August 2014
Unforeseen, short-term increases in sea level caused by strong winds, pressure changes and fluctuating ocean currents can cause more damage to beaches on the East Coast over the course of a year than a powerful hurricane making landfall, according to a new study. The new research suggests that these sea-level anomalies could be more of a threat to coastal homes and businesses than previously thought, and could become higher and more frequent as a result of climate change.
7 July 2014
The typhoon should weaken before hitting Japan, but Kyushu (southern most island) will get a ton of rain and wind. Flooding rains have already been reported earlier in the week so the soil is already saturated. ISS Astronaut Reid Wisemen sent back this shot of an oddly shaped eye on Neogori. (Perhaps related to the fact it was undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle.)
2 July 2014
You may need to click on the image above to really see the ripples across the top of Arthur, so do that first, before I tell you why they are there. You are looking at gravity waves, but a better way of understanding it is to compare it to the ripples you see after you throw a rock into a still pond. The rock disturbs the water and makes …
24 June 2014
Up to $106 billion worth of coastal homes and businesses in the U.S. are likely to be underwater by the year 2050 due to rising sea levels, and up to $507 billion in coastal property will likely be below sea level by 2100, according to a new report released today. The report is based in part on a new study on sea level rise in Earth’s Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
12 December 2013
A new way to identify areas at risk for landslides will help countries avoid tragedies like super-typhoon Bopha. The storm slammed into the Philippines in 2012, killing 1,200 people and causing $1 billion in damage. Scientists from the University of the Philippines are using lasers and radar to identify alluvial fans: sediment deposits resulting from streams or debris flows. Debris flows are landslides with rocks and dirt wet enough to …
27 October 2013
There are some signs that the low may not reach quite the intensity earlier, but I would not count on that. It may indeed may be one of the strongest storms in quite sometime in Britain. Matt Taylor’s weather broadcast on the BBC is below: Click image to see it. Below is the GFS Model for 3 AM Tuesday morning. The height of the storm will likely be Monday night. …
19 September 2013
Initial reports are emerging that a landslide at the village of La Pintada in Mexico has left 58 people missing
9 September 2013
Weather and climate forecasts have value because decisions and plans can be made that save money, and (more importantly) lives. This is why so much research is underway into making an accurate prediction of what the rate of sea level rise will be in the coming decades, and how precipitation patterns will change as the planet gets warmer (from increasing greenhouse gases). Shorter predictions for a few months ahead can …
6 June 2013
The GOES R satellite will be able to do ONE minute rapid scans in two different locations when it is launched in two years! (If budget cuts don’t delay it, we will finally catch up to Europe with satellite technology.) Here is a wider shot (Visible channel) of 15 min images. Hat tip to Metr. Brad Panovich for this one: and an IR/VIS POES Image below:
3 June 2013
Hurricane Sandy’s peculiar path was exceedingly rare, but whether or not climate change influenced the trajectory remains unknown, new research suggests. Sandy differed from most North Atlantic hurricanes by veering west over the northeastern United States and merging with a winter storm. But nothing proved more unusual about the “superstorm” than the nearly perpendicular angle at which it approached the New Jersey shoreline and collided with the coast on October 29, 2012. Usually, hurricanes graze the coast rather than plunging into it head on.
23 May 2013
The NOAA outlook for this hurricane season is out. Theses forecasts have some skill but it is well to remember that SOME is the operative word here. That said there are growing indications that this will be an active year. Perhaps very active… Here is the public release from NOAA: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues May 23, 2013 Hurricane Sandy as seen …
19 April 2013
Over 80 scientists gathered at a conference here this week to share their latest research on past, current, and projected future sea level rise and to discuss how this information can be used to shape policy. Despite their diverse perspectives and expertise, one thing the scientists agreed on for sure: the rates and impacts of sea level rise are local and communities are facing a growing risk.