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27 June 2016

Capping warming at 2 degrees: New study details pathways beyond Paris

Even if countries adhere to the Paris climate agreement hammered out last fall, capping global warming at 2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) would likely require net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2085 and substantial negative emissions over the long term, according to an in-depth analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.

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17 June 2016

Study: Waste heat major source of national warming

“This is a major source of climate change that has not been looked at,” said John Murray of The Open University in Milton Keynes, England and lead author of the new study accepted for publication in Earth’s Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. “Any kind of energy consumption generates heat” Murray said.

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20 April 2016

NASA/NOAA/ Data All Show Hottest March Ever

NOAA and NASA both have released the global temp. data and not only did it break a record for the 11th consecutive month (Something that has never happened before), it also broke the previous March record by a record amount. NASA reported the global March temp. was 1.28C above the average from 1950-1980. Keep in mind that there’s a strong scientific consensus that any rise above 2 degrees C in …

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29 March 2016

This Has Meteorologists Talking Today

An interesting paper came out today, and it has we meteorologists talking. It’s about using sea water temperature patterns in the Pacific to forecast heat waves in the eastern portions of North America. Researchers found that when a certain pattern of water temperatures appeared, there would often be unusually hot weather in the Eastern U.S. about 40-50 days later. A statistical analysis using this method over the years 1982-2013 showed …

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8 March 2016

This Winter Was The Warmest On Record Nationwide

From NOAA NCEI: The December–February average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 36.8°F, 4.6°F above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record of 36.5°F set in 1999/2000. The exceptionally warm December boosted the contiguous U.S. winter temperature. The February temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 39.5°F, 5.7°F above the 20th century average, ranking as the seventh warmest on record and warmest since 2000. Preliminary indications are that globally, February …

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6 March 2016

Beyond the Data on The Planet’s Temperature

Deke Arndt at NOAA is one of the smartest climatologists around, and I always look forward to hearing him talk, because he takes data and makes you see it in a way you did not immediately think about. By the way, for those of you who are still in school, some sage advice: always hang around with people smarter than you. You’ll never learn anything by being the smartest person in …

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17 February 2016

NOAA Data Confirms NASA Data- January 2016 Hottest Month On Record

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the Nat. Climate Data Center) posted their monthly global temperature data and it (like NASA) shows January to be the hottest month on their data base. The thermometer record goes back to 1880, but proxy data shows this was likely the hottest month on the planet in at least 2,000 years. This is the 9th month in a row with a new monthly …

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16 February 2016

January 2016 Blows Away Global Temp. Records

NASA announced today that this past January was an amazing 1.13 degrees C. above the 1950-1980 average. It becomes only the 4th month ever to reach over 1 degree C above the average, with the other 3 months being in 2015. The record is mainly due to the increasing greenhouse gases, and the strong El Nino in the Pacific. Having now reached 1 degree C above the average, we are …

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17 January 2016

No, The Planet Did Not Stop Getting Warmer. Here’s the Proof.

Depending on how you interpret the data, the warming of the air may have slowed somewhat (This is very unlikely though) for a few years in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, but the planet as a whole is still warming steadily. We know this, because the oceans hold almost all the heat, and they are continuing to warm. The graph below is proof, and you might want to study …

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14 January 2016

January Tropical Cyclones in The Atlantic & Pacific. At The Same Time!

This hasn’t happened before. Alex is the earliest tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic. Pali, in the Central Pacific, became the earliest hurricane there this week, only weakening to a tropical storm tonight. What’s going on you ask? Answer: The atmosphere and the oceans are on steroids. The world’s oceans are the warmest ever measured, and the strongest El Nino on record is underway in the Pacific. 2015 was …

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18 December 2015

Global Temperature Record Smashed for the 7th Month in A Row

NASA released the global temperature data today and it agrees with that of NASA and Japan that November was the hottest on record. More from NOAA here: “The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2015 was the highest for November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), breaking the previous record of 2013 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). This marks …

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Policy changes in Mongolian capital could improve health, decreasing lives lost to air pollution

Exposure to dangerous contaminants in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia could increase by 10 percent or more by 2024, exacerbating health problems in one of the most polluted cities in the world, a new study finds.

Residents of Ulaanbaatar, the most populous city in Mongolia, rely heavily on coal to survive frigid winters in a valley where air pollution is easily trapped. Air pollution in Ulaanbaatar caused an estimated 1,250 premature deaths in 2014, according to Drew Hill, a graduate student in environmental health at the University of California, Berkeley. Hill was part of a research team that presented an air pollution and health report to the Mongolian Ministry of the Environment and Green Development in the summer of 2014.

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14 December 2015

November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week, and linger through the weekend, but after that the temps. will once again soar. The map below shows the average 5 day temperatures from the 21st to the 26th. Highs will be more than 10 degrees …

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10 December 2015

U.S. Has Warmest Autumn on Record

Temperatures across the U.S. (at 3 PM) were over 30 degrees above average in North Dakota this afternoon. With dozens of cities reporting temperatures of 12-28 degrees above average. The map below is based on the average weather (for 3 PM on December 9th) over the last 30 years. The maps below show the temperatures over the last 30 and the last 90 days compared to normal. The NOAA Climate …

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4 December 2015

El Nino In A Can

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the simulation. …

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21 October 2015

September Global Heat Record Smashed. 2015 Will Almost Certainly Pass 2014 as Hottest on Record

September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …

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19 October 2015

Jaw Dropping Ignorance Versus Science Fact

How ignorant people see the world: How someone with a little bit of critical thinking ability sees it: This ends today’s lesson. Note: I’m at the National Weather Association conference here in Oklahoma City, and I’ll have more to talk about regarding that later tonight. The guy below hired me (here in OKC in Jan. 1980) for my first on-air weather job. Why does Merrell Teller have less gray hair …

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14 September 2015

The Alarming Thing about History

The alarming thing about history is its seemingly inevitable habit of repeating itself. This alone is a good reason to learn as much of it as you have time to cram in, but as every history professor tells his students, the why is more important, than the what and and when. That’s why Timothy Snyder’s thoughtful piece in the NY Times this weekend is so worth reading.

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25 August 2015

Smoke From Western Fires Spreads Across the U.S.

The image above shows the smoke from the wildfires burning across Washington, Oregon and Northern California. It is possible this smoke will reach the Eastern Seaboard, behind a late summer cool front that is exiting the coast today. The visible image below clearly shows the smoke plumes from the Washington fires this afternoon. A patch of dense smoke is also visible today courtesy the NASA Terra satellite over Newfoundland.

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22 July 2015

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky

The image above shows how very strong the developing El Nino in the Pacific, is compared to the 1997 event (which is the strongest on record). Since El Nino events usually peak in the later fall/winter, it sure looks like we are in for one of the strongest ever, if not perhaps a record breaker, but look closer at those two images. They are different. Notice the very warm water …

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