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17 January 2016

No, The Planet Did Not Stop Getting Warmer. Here’s the Proof.

Depending on how you interpret the data, the warming of the air may have slowed somewhat (This is very unlikely though) for a few years in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, but the planet as a whole is still warming steadily. We know this, because the oceans hold almost all the heat, and they are continuing to warm. The graph below is proof, and you might want to study …

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14 January 2016

January Tropical Cyclones in The Atlantic & Pacific. At The Same Time!

This hasn’t happened before. Alex is the earliest tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic. Pali, in the Central Pacific, became the earliest hurricane there this week, only weakening to a tropical storm tonight. What’s going on you ask? Answer: The atmosphere and the oceans are on steroids. The world’s oceans are the warmest ever measured, and the strongest El Nino on record is underway in the Pacific. 2015 was …

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18 December 2015

Global Temperature Record Smashed for the 7th Month in A Row

NASA released the global temperature data today and it agrees with that of NASA and Japan that November was the hottest on record. More from NOAA here: “The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2015 was the highest for November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), breaking the previous record of 2013 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). This marks …

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Policy changes in Mongolian capital could improve health, decreasing lives lost to air pollution

Exposure to dangerous contaminants in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia could increase by 10 percent or more by 2024, exacerbating health problems in one of the most polluted cities in the world, a new study finds.

Residents of Ulaanbaatar, the most populous city in Mongolia, rely heavily on coal to survive frigid winters in a valley where air pollution is easily trapped. Air pollution in Ulaanbaatar caused an estimated 1,250 premature deaths in 2014, according to Drew Hill, a graduate student in environmental health at the University of California, Berkeley. Hill was part of a research team that presented an air pollution and health report to the Mongolian Ministry of the Environment and Green Development in the summer of 2014.

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14 December 2015

November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week, and linger through the weekend, but after that the temps. will once again soar. The map below shows the average 5 day temperatures from the 21st to the 26th. Highs will be more than 10 degrees …

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10 December 2015

U.S. Has Warmest Autumn on Record

Temperatures across the U.S. (at 3 PM) were over 30 degrees above average in North Dakota this afternoon. With dozens of cities reporting temperatures of 12-28 degrees above average. The map below is based on the average weather (for 3 PM on December 9th) over the last 30 years. The maps below show the temperatures over the last 30 and the last 90 days compared to normal. The NOAA Climate …

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4 December 2015

El Nino In A Can

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the simulation. …

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21 October 2015

September Global Heat Record Smashed. 2015 Will Almost Certainly Pass 2014 as Hottest on Record

September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …

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19 October 2015

Jaw Dropping Ignorance Versus Science Fact

How ignorant people see the world: How someone with a little bit of critical thinking ability sees it: This ends today’s lesson. Note: I’m at the National Weather Association conference here in Oklahoma City, and I’ll have more to talk about regarding that later tonight. The guy below hired me (here in OKC in Jan. 1980) for my first on-air weather job. Why does Merrell Teller have less gray hair …

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14 September 2015

The Alarming Thing about History

The alarming thing about history is its seemingly inevitable habit of repeating itself. This alone is a good reason to learn as much of it as you have time to cram in, but as every history professor tells his students, the why is more important, than the what and and when. That’s why Timothy Snyder’s thoughtful piece in the NY Times this weekend is so worth reading.

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25 August 2015

Smoke From Western Fires Spreads Across the U.S.

The image above shows the smoke from the wildfires burning across Washington, Oregon and Northern California. It is possible this smoke will reach the Eastern Seaboard, behind a late summer cool front that is exiting the coast today. The visible image below clearly shows the smoke plumes from the Washington fires this afternoon. A patch of dense smoke is also visible today courtesy the NASA Terra satellite over Newfoundland.

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22 July 2015

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky

The image above shows how very strong the developing El Nino in the Pacific, is compared to the 1997 event (which is the strongest on record). Since El Nino events usually peak in the later fall/winter, it sure looks like we are in for one of the strongest ever, if not perhaps a record breaker, but look closer at those two images. They are different. Notice the very warm water …

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20 July 2015

NOAA: June 2015 Hottest On Record Globally

  From NOAA: The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for the month of June since record keeping began in 1880. The first half of the year (January–June) was also record warm. (Last year 2014, was the hottest year on record, but so far 2015 is beating it, and with the strong El Nino underway, and CO2 levels past 400 ppm, the …

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17 July 2015

State of The Climate Report Released

Every summer for the past 25 years the AMS publishes the State of the Climate Report in BAMS. I usually curl up in a cool place and read it and you can as well since the AMS has made it free to all to read. this year’s report has plenty of updated (and not good) news about our planet. From NOAA: In 2014, the most essential indicators of Earth’s changing …

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15 July 2015

NASA: June 2015 ties with 1998 as Hottest On Record

As greenhouse gases rise, we get more record hot months, but they are even more likely during an El Nino. Just like 1998, we have a strong one developing now. So far, this year is the warmest ever (Last year is currently the record holder), and 2015 has already seen a the hottest ever March and May, with January and February coming in as second hottest ever. Below is a …

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6 June 2015

Amazing Greenland

I’ve been lucky enough to visit Greenland twice, and it is truly a place of amazing beauty. A friend who lives just a couple of blocks away from me here on the Eastern Shore of Maryland just got back from the 2015 operation Ice Bridge mission where the video below is from. Ice Bridge is filling in data on the changes in the ice sheets to cover the loss of …

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31 May 2015

Will El Nino Break the California Drought? The Odds Are Not Good

I‘ve been doing a  little research into the coming El Nino and how it might relieve the epic California drought. The news isn’t very good, but the short of it is this: California needs to beseech Mother Nature for a supersized El Nino, because a regular size will probably not do the job. Look at the image above from a blog post by Tom DiLiberto last fall (on the excellent …

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28 May 2015

Alaska Sees Earliest 90 Degree Temperatures On Record

From climate.NOAA.gov today: This temperature map of Alaska shows the unusual warmth on May 23, 2015, at 2 p.m. local time in Fairbanks.  Based on NOAA’s Real-time Mesoscale Analysis data, it shows air temperatures at 2 meters (6.6 feet) above the ground. Temperatures below 45° are shades of blue, and temperatures above 45° are shades of orange and red. The warmest temperatures are located inland—away from the moderating influence of …

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27 May 2015

The sounds and songs of climate data

Have you heard the statement, “any geophysical time series can be represented by music.” Look no further than this blog post to listen to the sounds of climate data over time.

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14 May 2015

NASA: Warmest Jan.-April on Record. 2015 May be New Hottest Year On Record

The previous 12 month period was also the hottest on record and this breaks that record which was set just last month. With the daily increasing signs that a significant El Nino is brewing, we seem to be on track for another warmest year on record as well. El Nino’s really heat the atmosphere, and they tend to be among the warmer years almost always. Add in the rising greenhouse …

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